POLAND: Mentzen Refrains From Explicit Endorsement But Drops Some Hints

Briefly summarising the rest of this morning's Swedish macro data, there isn't much to change the near-term Riksbank outlook (alongside the weaker-than-expected flash Q1 GDP indicator). The April Economic Tendency Survey at 0800BST is a much more important release in this respect, particularly as it is a quarterly survey with a wider range of questions than the usual monthly release.

March Goods Trade Data: The March trade surplus was SEK12.8bln, with February’s revised to SEK15.0bln (vs 14.4bln initial). 

• Country level data is only available for February, and there isn’t an obvious sign of US tariff front-running yet. Total exports to the US were SEK16.0bln, vs SEK15.5bln in Jan but SEK16.2bln in November.
• Vehicle exports (a key export market for Sweden) did jump to SEK4.1bln vs SEK3.1bln in Jan, but it’s a volatile series. We’ll need the March data in hand to better contextualise this increase.

March Lending Data: Household (2.1% Y/Y vs 1.9% prior) and corporate (0.5% Y/Y vs 0.1% prior) continued to gradually accelerate, as past rate cuts feed through to the real economy. Focus will be on whether future months are negative impacted by US tariff related uncertainty.

February Wages: Whole economy wages eased to 3.9% Y/Y (vs 4.1% prior), and has fluctuated between 3.8-4.1% for the last nine months. This steady development has come despite the labour market continuing to gradually weaken. 

• The latest manufacturing sector collective agreements (which act as a benchmark for the whole economy) came in at 3.4% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026. This is largely consistent with the Riksbank’s 2% target. 

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• The Bank of Thailand (BoT) decision is on April 30 and it is a close call with 4 out of 17 analysts on Bloomberg expecting no change but the rest forecasting a 25bp cut.
• It eased 25bp to 2% at its last meeting in February and may follow that up with another to support growth in the face of increased global trade uncertainty and the impact of March’s earthquake, which are likely to drive a downward revision to its “around 2.5%” growth forecast.
• Thailand’s economy is highly exposed to the US with 20% of its 2024 exports going there, only second to Taiwan in the region. Its exposure to China is a lot less but not immaterial at 12.7% and so its already subdued GDP growth could be impacted directly and indirectly from US trade policy.
• Both headline and core inflation fell below the bottom of the 1-3% BoT band in March.

• G10 FX has been range bound and as noted for Bonds and Equities, there's very little changes across multi assets.
• The Dollar might be showing in the green and on the front foot against all G10s, but if we look at the three worst performing Currencies, the SEK, the CHF and the NZD, they are all trading well within Yesterday's range.
• Even the normally very Volatile Yen has traded in a 58 pips range as Market Participants turn their focus to the US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence Data to gauge the impact of the Tariff Policies later Today.