POLITICAL RISK: Meloni's Favourability On The Rise As Starmer & Merz Plummet
Dec-31 16:27
End-of-year favourability ratings from YouGov shows most major European heads of gov't/state struggl...
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STIR: Implied ECB Cuts Haven't Fully Unwound Yet, Q1 Services Inflation Key
Dec-01 16:27
Improving Eurozone growth and somewhat sticky inflation data has dampened expectations for another ECB cut this cycle. However, markets have been hesitant to fully unwind implied easing expectations, as there remains some uncertainty around how tolerant the Governing Council will be of a sub-2% inflation rate – even if this would be in line with ECB projections.
- Services-driven downside inflation surprises in Q1 could be enough to see rate cut premium build back up the front of the EUR curve, with meeting-dated OIS currently pricing just 6bps of easing through September. A reminder that the December decision will include an updated set of forecasts.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Dec-25 | 1.928 | 0.3 |
| Feb-26 | 1.923 | -0.2 |
| Mar-26 | 1.902 | -2.4 |
| Apr-26 | 1.897 | -2.8 |
| Jun-26 | 1.869 | -5.6 |
| Jul-26 | 1.868 | -5.7 |
| Sep-26 | 1.867 | -5.8 |
| Oct-26 | 1.874 | -5.1 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg Finance L.P. | ||
SOFR OPTIONS: BLOCK: Mar'26 SOFR Call Spread Buyer
Dec-01 16:27
- +10,000 SFRH6 96.37/96.50 call spds, 4.25 ref 96.425 to -.43 from 1120-1123ET
FED: US TSY 13W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $1.747 BLN FROM $86.000 BLN TOTAL
Dec-01 16:15
- US TSY 13W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $1.747 BLN FROM $86.000 BLN TOTAL
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