STIR: Markets Briefly Price ~90% Odds Of Dec BoE Rate Cut

GBP STIRs have steadied alongside a recovery from session lows in the long end.

• The short end has mimicked swings seen further out the curve since the early release of the OBR documentation that was supposed to follow the Budget.
• BoE-dated OIS pricing 21.5bp of easing for next month after briefly moving near 22.5bp in initial reaction to the OBR forecasts. Nothing released so far presents an obvious limitation to the Bank cutting rates in December.
• A full 25bp cut is still more than fully discounted through the January meeting, with a follow up rate cut now more or less fully priced through the end of the April meeting (~47bp was priced through April early this morning).
• SONIA futures flat to +3.0, implied terminal rate pricing 3.32% vs. closer to 3.35% early today and dovish session extremes of 3.285%, which matched the year-to-date dovish extreme.