EM LATAM CREDIT: Market Wrap

• RES 4: 1.4015 High Dec 2 ‘25
• RES 3: 1.3985 76.4% retracement of the Nov 5 ‘25 - Jan 30 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.3878/3967 High Apr 13 / High Mar 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3742 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 1.3670 @ 17:35 BST Apr 29
• SUP 1: 1.3598 Low Apr 27
• SUP 2: 1.3526 Low Mar 9
• SUP 3: 1.3482 Low Jan 30 and key support
• SUP 4: 1.3430 2.0% 10-dma envelope

The short-term bear cycle in USDCAD remains in play and gains are considered corrective. The break through 1.3631, the Apr 21 low, confirms a resumption of the downtrend and paves the way for an extension towards 1.3526, the Mar 9 low and the next key support. Initial resistance is seen at 1.3742, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal a possible short-term reversal.

• US rates have seen a slight hawkish extension with Powell’s final press conference, again led by 1H27 contracts, but it's small compared to the day’s shift on surging crude oil futures (WTI 1st +7.5%).
• SFRM7 is -0.02 since Powell took to the podium, -0.05 since the decision itself and -0.155 on the day.
• Currently at 96.200 off an earlier low of 96.175, SFRM7 came close to the recent low of 96.165 early on Mar 27 having last been lower in Feb 2025.   
• The terminal implied yield of 3.605% (H8, +9bp) is on track for comfortably its highest close of the Middle East conflict. It has seen a range of 3.075% (Mar 2) - 3.55% (Mar 26) for closes since first US-Israel strikes on Iran on Feb 28.
• FF cumulative moves from 3.64% effective: 0bp Jun, -1bp Jul, -0.5bp Sep, 0bp Oct, +2bp Dec before +9bp Mar 2027 and +10.5bp Jun 2027.

See link below for a rough transcript of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's April 29 press conference (PDF):

FOMC Press Conference April 2026