FED: March Minutes: "Most" Concerned About War Hurting Labor Markets (2/3)

• RES 4: 1.3712 High Feb 11     
• RES 3: 1.3662 High Feb 16  
• RES 2: 1.3575 High Feb 26 and a key S/T resistance 
• RES 1: 1.3434/3496 Low Feb 19 / 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 1.3394 @ 15:54 GMT Mar 09
• SUP 1: 1.3253 Low Mar 03
• SUP 2: 1.3212 76.4% retracement of the Nov 4 ‘25 - Jan 27 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 1.3180 Low Dec 2 ‘25
• SUP 4: 1.3125 Low Nov 26 ‘25   

The short-term trend condition in GBPUSD is unchanged, it remains bearish. Recent weakness resulted in the breach of a number of important short-term support levels. 1.3331, the Jan 19 low and a key support, has also been cleared. This break strengthens a bear theme and opens 1.3212, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 1.3575, the Feb 26 high, where a breach is required to signal a possible reversal.    

A new survey from NPR/PBS/Marist has found that “most Americans say that they are against the military action and disapprove of how President Trump is handling it... By a 56%-44% margin, respondents said they oppose the military action.”

• According to NPR, “Just 36% approve of how Trump is handling Iran, and a majority (55%) thinks Iran either represents a minor threat or no threat at all to the United States. However, 44% do see Iran as a major threat, and Republicans continue to heavily support the actions and this president. Democrats (86%) and independents (61%) are largely aligned with each other in opposition to the military action. But 84% of Republicans support it.”

Figure 1: Would you support or oppose the US sending ground troops into Iran? 

Source: NPR, PBS, Marist 

• RES 4: 1.1835 High Feb 23  
• RES 3: 1.1752 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.1740 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.1655 High Mar 4
• PRICE: 1.1588 @ 15:52 GMT Mar 9
• SUP 1: 1.1507 Intraday Low Mar 09
• SUP 2: 1.1491 Low Nov 21 ‘25
• SUP 3: 1.1456 1.50 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 6 - 10 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 ‘25 

A bear cycle in EURUSD remains in play and Monday’s fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions. The pair has traded below 1.1573, the Jan 19 low and a key support. A clear break of it would open 1.1491, the Nov 21 ‘25 low. Note that moving average studies highlight a bearish cross - if confirmed this would signal a medium-term bearish development. First resistance is 1.1655, the Mar 4 high.