SPAIN DATA: Manufacturing PMI Downward Surprise
The Spanish Manufacturing PMI notably underperformed in September, coming in at 51.5 (53.8 cons; 54.3 August) in its first decline from the prior since April. This marks a three month low: "Weaker gains in both output and new orders signalled", the release concludes. Key highlights below:
- "Weaker gains in both output and new orders. Notably, the rise in production was the softest for four
months. Despite weakening, new order book growth remained solid amid reports of firm demand and new product introductions." - "However, growth was broadly confined to domestic clients as latest data showed a decline in new export orders for the first time in three months. Tariffs and political uncertainty in key markets reportedly restricted export demand."
- "Some instability in the outlook meanwhile weighed on company expectations. Although on average firms are forecasting an improvement in production from present levels, confidence was down on August’s six-month high. An uncertain outlook and slower growth in current new orders meant several firms chose not to replace leavers and renew employee contracts in September. The result was a modest decline in staffing levels for the first time in seven months.
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MNI: SPAIN AUG MANUF PMI 54.3 (52.1 FCAST, 51.9 JUL)
- MNI: SPAIN AUG MANUF PMI 54.3 (52.1 FCAST, 51.9 JUL)
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Large Call Spread
ERM6 98.3125/98.4375, bought for 2.5 in 15k.
EFSF ISSUANCE: Apr-29 / Feb-34 Tap Dual Tranche: Guidance
Apr-29 tap:
- Guidance: MS+10bps area
- Coupon: 3.500% (150 days accrued), Annual ACT/ACT
- Maturity: 11 April 2029
- ISIN: EU000A2SCAL3
Feb-34 tap:
- MS+34bps area
- Coupon: 2.875% (207 days accrued), Annual ACT/ACT
- Maturity: 13 February 2034
- ISIN: EU000A2SCAN9
Across both tranches:
- Size: E3.5bln maximum combined
- Settlement: 8 September 2025 (T+5)
- Bookrunners: LBBW / NOMURA (DM/B&D) / TD
- Denoms: EUR 1,000 x 1,000
- Target market: Professionals / Eligible Counterparties only (all distribution channels), each as defined in MiFID II
- Issuer: European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF)
- Ratings: Aaa (stable) / AA- (stable) / AA-
- Risk Weighting: 0%
- Format: RegS / Bearer Notes (TEFRA rules apply, no communications with or into the U.S.)
- Timing: Books open, today's business
The EFSF sent an RFP (Request for Proposal) last Wednesday regarding an upcoming transaction. That meant a transaction was likely this week, MNI pencilled in today or tomorrow. We had initially expected an EFSF transaction in either late August or by mid-September (September had looked likely after the ESM RfP was released on Wednesday 20 August). On size, E3bln seemed like the most likely option to us for today's transaction. The transaction concludes issuance for the EFSF this year.
