US: Majority Of Americans Think Trump's Proposed Tariffs Will Raise Costs
A survey from Ipsos has found that a majority of Americans believe that proposed by US President Donald Trump will raise the price of consumer goods.
- Ipsos: "...a majority of Americans (66%) think these tariffs will raise the cost of the goods they buy, according to the latest data from the Ipsos Consumer Tracker. That perception is practically unanimous among Democrats (at 87%), but nearly half of Republicans feel the same."
- Ipsos notes: "We've also seen that high confidence the tariffs will happen in the first place: 81% of Americans think"it's likely that Trump will try to increase tariffs on imports from China and Mexico," according to a recent Ipsos poll for The New York Times."
Figure 1: “To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following? - Tariffs will raise prices on goods I buy”
Source: Ipsos
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US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H5) Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 112-02 Low Oct 14
- RES 3: 111-20+ High 6 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 110-28 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 110-03+ 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 108-23 @ 17:10 GMT Dec 23
- SUP 1: 108-16+ Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: 108-12+ 1.382 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
- SUP 3: 108-00 1.500 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
- SUP 4: 107-19+ 1.618 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
The trend condition in Treasury futures remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. Last week’s sell-off reinforces the current bear cycle. The contract has traded through key short-term support and the bear trigger at 109-02+, the Nov 15 low. The breach confirms a resumption of the downtrend and opens 108+12+, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 110-03+, the 20-day EMA.
US TSY OPTIONS: Feb'25 10Y Calls
- 12,000 TYG5 111 calls, 10 ref 108-23.5
BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Yields Head Higher Pre-Holiday
Bund and Gilt yields continued their ascent Monday.
- Core European FI dipped in the return from the weekend, with some pointing to commentary by ECB President Lagarde (telling the FT: "We’re getting very close to that stage when we can declare that we have sustainably brought inflation to our medium-term 2%"). OIS-implied ECB rates ticked only marginally higher, though.
- Bunds and Gilts would regain ground as oil prices faded and concerns over US-China trade tariffs simmered, but were weighed down by Treasuries toward the European cash close, with pre-Christmas US supply (2Y and 5Y today and Wednesday) eyed as a factor.
- There was little reaction to an unexpected softening in Q3 UK GDP in the final reading (0.1pp to 0.0%).
- Liquidity was thinned on account of the holidays, with Bund futures volumes at around 55% of typical recent levels.
- UK and German yields closed higher more or less in parallel, with the German short-end slightly outperforming.
- OATs underperformed, with French PM Bayrou set to unveil a new cabinet at 1730GMT/1830 local.
- There is a dearth of scheduled events Tuesday amid a limited session and ahead of Wednesday's holiday market closure.
Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany
- Germany: The 2-Yr yield is up 3bps at 2.057%, 5-Yr is up 3.8bps at 2.127%, 10-Yr is up 3.8bps at 2.323%, and 30-Yr is up 3.5bps at 2.553%.
- UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 3.4bps at 4.381%, 5-Yr is up 3.6bps at 4.326%, 10-Yr is up 3.6bps at 4.546%, and 30-Yr is up 4.9bps at 5.099%.
- Italian BTP spread up 0.9bps at 116.9bps / French OAT up 1.1bps at 81.5bps
