US CREDIT UPDATE: Main Street (MAIN) Preliminary Estimates of Q4 2025 Results
Main Street (MAIN) Preliminary Estimate of Fourth Quarter 2025 Operating Results
(MAIN;NR/BBB-BBB-)
{MAIN US Equity}
Slight credit positive.
• Estimates now for NII/sh $1.01-1.05/sh - higher than BBG consensus.
• NAV/sh now expected at $33.29-$33.37/sh
• Investments on nonaccrual at 1.0% (FV), down from 1.2% the previous quarter.
• Total net new assets during the quarter of $361.9m
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STIR: Repo Reference Rates
- Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 3.75% (+0.08), volume: $3.270T
- Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 3.73% (+0.08), volume: $1.315T
- Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TCR): 3.73% (+0.08), volume: $1.288T
- (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)
US TSYS: Early SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup: Waiting for Data
SOFR & Treasury options saw better downside put trade overnight, modest overall volumes ahead of this morning's heavy data docket: weekly ADP and headline NFP. Projected rate cut pricing gaining slightly vs. late Monday levels (*): Jan'26 at -6.1bp (-5.5bp), Mar'26 at -14.3bp (-13.8bp), Apr'26 at -20.8bp (-20.5bp), Jun'26 at -34.2bp (-34.1bp).
- SOFR Options:
- 4,500 SFRH6 96.56/96.68 call spds ref 96.47
- +2,000 SFRH6 96.37 puts, 3.75 vs. 96.46/0.30%
- +4,200 SFRF6 96.25/96.43/96.50 broken put flys, 0.25 ref 96.47
- +2,000 SFRG6 96.50/96.62 call spds, 3.0 ref 96.47
- +4,000 SFRF6 96.37 puts, 1.25
- +6,000 SFRU 96.37/96.81 2x3 put spds, 3.0-3.25 ref 96.835 to -.83
- 1,800 SFRF6 96.50 puts vs. 96.50/96.62 call spds ref 96.48
- 2,690 SFRU6 96.37/96.81/97.25 2x3x1 put flys ref 96.84
- Treasury Options:
- -8,000 TYG6/TYH6 112.5 straddle spd, 33 vs. 112-09.5
- over 6,400 TYF6 113 calls, 9-10
- 7,000 TUH6 103.5/104/104.12/104.37 broken put condors, 2.5 vs. 104-09.75/0.04%
- +1,200 USF6 116.5 puts, 150 ref 114-30
- -3,000 TYF6 112.75 calls, 14-15 ref 112-12 to -13 /0.34%
- +2,000 TYF6 111.25 puts, 4
- +2,100 TYG6 111.5 puts, 21
- -1,065 FVG6 108/109 put spds, 16.5 ref 109-08/0.27%
- Expire today:
- over 19,000 Tue Wkly 10Y 112 puts ref 112-12.5
- over 15,000 Tue Wkly 1112.25 puts, 10-11
OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
- EUR/USD: Dec17 $1.1700(E1.2bln), $1.1750(E1.2bln), $1.1800(E1.5bln); Dec18 $1.1550(E1.9bln), $1.1600(E1.3bln), $1.1750(E2.6bln), $1.1797-00(E1.2bln); Dec19 $1.1650(E1.1bln), $1.1675-80(E2.0bln), $1.1750(E1.7bln), $1.1785-00(E4.2bln), $1.1900(E2.0bln)
- USD/JPY: Dec18 Y155.00($3.0bln), Y156.00($3.1bln), Y156.25($2.3bln), Y157.00($4.0bln), Y158.00($4.8bln), Y158.50($1.9bln), Y159.00($6.5bln); Dec19 Y155.00($2.0bln)
- EUR/GBP: Dec19 Gbp0.8800(E1.3bln)
- AUD/USD: Dec18 $0.6540-50(A$1.6bln), $0.6665-75(A$1.3bln); Dec19 $0.6675(A$1.1bln), $0.6700(A$1.6bln)
- AUD/NZD: Dec17 N$1.1410(A$1.5bln)
- USD/CAD: Dec19 C$1.3800($940mln), C$1.3825($1.7bln), C$1.3900($1.7bln), C$1.3950($1.2bln)
