FRANCE: Macron Renames Lecornu Prime Minister

• RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 10  
• RES 3: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.3925 High Aug 22 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3868 High Aug 26
• PRICE: 1.3850 @ 16:38 BST Sep 10
• SUP 1: 1.3782/27 50-day EMA / Low Aug 27 and a bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 1.3709 61.8% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 1.3658 76.4% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle 
• SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25  

A bull cycle in USDCAD remains intact. The recovery from the Aug 29 low highlights a potential early reversal signal and if correct, marks the end of the corrective pullback between Aug 22 - 29. An extension higher would open the bull trigger at 1.3925, the Aug 22 high. Support lies at 1.3727, the Aug 29 low. Clearance of this level would instead reinstate a short-term bear theme and expose 1.3709 initially, a Fibonacci retracement.  

Wells Fargo is on the low end of sell-side expectations for unrounded core CPI, seeing a 0.29% M/M increase in August, but still expect “sticky services inflation alongside the rebound in goods prices” continuing.

• Core goods are set to rise 0.25% M/M: “New vehicle inflation, which has been tame, is poised to strengthen as a rebound in auto sales has helped to reduce inventory and the use of incentives has slowed. Price growth for other import-heavy items, such as apparel, recreational goods and communication hardware, should remain solid as well with another 0.3% increase.”
• Meanwhile core services prices to rise 0.30% M/M: “Travel-related service prices started to rebound in July, and we estimate another solid gain in August (+1.0%), led by lodging away from home. While spending on discretionary services remains generally weak, consumers' appetite for travel shows signs of rebounding with hotel occupancy and TSA screenings up again on a year-ago basis, suggestive of some stabilization in consumer demand.”
• However, medical care services could moderate after July’s jump and primary shelter inflation “should run a touch under its 0.31% year-to-date average through the remainder of 2025”.

• RES 4: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 3: 0.6677 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: 0.6667 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 1: 0.6636 High Sep 10
• PRICE: 0.6625 @ 16:32 BST Sep 10
• SUP 1: 0.6511 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 
• SUP 4: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg

AUDUSD built on the recent firmer tone, ending the corrective phase that started on Jul 24. Price pierced key resistance and the bull trigger at 0.6625, the Jul 24 high on Wednesday. A clear breach of this level would resume the uptrend and open 0.6677, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is 0.6415, the Aug 21 / 22 low. A clear break of it would instead highlight a stronger reversal.