US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M5) Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows
- RES 4: 113-22 1.382 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 22 price swing
- RES 3: 113-04 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg
- RES 2: 112-20+ High May 1 and key new-term resistance
- RES 1: 112-01+ High May 2
- PRICE: 111-08+ @ 11:25 BST May 7
- SUP 1: 110-27+ Low May 6
- SUP 2: 110-16+/109-08 Low Apr 22 / 11 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 110-00 100-dma
- SUP 4: 108-26+ 76.4% retracement of the Jan 13 - Apr 7 bull cycle
Treasury futures are trading closer to their recent lows and the latest pullback undermines the recent bull cycle. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA, and pierced support at the 50-day EMA, at 110-31. A clear break of this average would strengthen a bearish threat and expose 110-16+, Apr 22 low. For bulls, price needs to trade above key short-term resistance at 112-20+, the May 1 high, to reinstate a bullish theme.
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STIR: BLOCK: Sep'25 SOFR Ratio Put Spread
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- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 07-Apr 1030 Fed Gov Kugler on inflation dynamics & Phillips curve (ne text, Q&A)
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SCANDIS: Underperform G10 Basket On Sour Risk Sentiment and Global Growth Fears
Scandi currencies notably underperform the G10 this morning, with risk sentiment souring amid fresh global growth concerns. Weak Brent crude and natural gas price action has provided an additional headwind to the NOK, leaving NOKSEK down 0.3% today at ~0.9270. A clear break of the November 2020 low at 0.9274 would expose the 76.4% retracement of the March 2020 - March 2022 bull leg at 0.9147 as next support.
- EURNOK is up 1.4% on the session, after breaching trendline resistance drawn from the August 2024 high at 11.7185 on Friday. The psychological 12.0000 handle was pierced earlier before the rally faded. This level remains the initial resistance.
- USDNOK has rallied ~5.5% from last Thursday’s close, with the pair now trading above the 50-day EMA for the first time since March 4.
- For SEK, there will be heightened interest around tomorrow’s Riksbank speeches from Bunge (0645BST) and Thedeen (1230BST). Although the March decision and minutes suggested the current policy rate of 2.25% was an appropriate reflection of the upside and downside risks to the inflation outlook, the Board emphasised a clear readiness to act if the outlook changes.
- The sharp reversal in spot rates over the past two sessions has been reflected in options markets, with the vol premium for 3-month calls over puts spiking higher in Scandi crosses against both USD and EUR.
- This week’s Scandinavian data calendar is headlined by Norwegian March inflation on Thursday. Swedish February activity data (Thursday) and final March CPI (Friday) are also due.
