BUND TECHS: (M5) Outlook Remains Bullish

NZGBs closed 1-3bps richer, but slightly off session bests at the long-end. 

• NZ-US and NZ-AU 10-year yield differentials closed little changed.
• Cash US tsys are slightly mixed in today's Asia-Pac session.
• ANZ business confidence fell to 49.3 in April from 57.5, the lowest level since July 2024, the month before the start of the RBNZ’s easing cycle. The activity outlook moderated to 47.7 from 48.6, which remains above February’s 45.1.
• On a more positive note, the assessment of activity compared to a year ago rose 10 points to 11 driven by services and signalling a strong start to Q2 for GDP growth. Price/cost components trended higher over Q1 but were mixed in April but inflation expectations were stable around 2.6%.
• Online job ads fell for the 10th straight quarter on an annual basis.
• Swap rates closed 2-5bps lower, with the 2s10s curve flatter.
• RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed little changed across meetings. 26bps of easing is priced for May, with a cumulative 83bps by November 2025.
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will see CoreLogic Home Values ahead of Building Permits on Friday.
• Tomorrow, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$250mn of the 4.50% May-30 bond, NZ$150mn of the 4.25% May-34 bond and NZ$50mn of the 5.00% May-54 bond.

• RES 4: 133.90 1.236 proj of the Mar 25 - Apr 7- 9 price swing                 
• RES 3: 133.00 round number resistance      
• RES 2: 132.56 High Feb 28 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 132.03 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger                    
• PRICE: 131.47 @ 05:35 BST Apr 30
• SUP 1: 130.77/129.92 20-day EMA / Low Apr 11          
• SUP 2: 129.02 Low Apr 10            
• SUP 3: 128.60 Low Apr 9 and a key support   
• SUP 4: 128.47 Low Mar 28  

Bund futures continue to trade below their recent highs. Despite the latest move down, a bull cycle remains in play and the sell-off between Apr 7 - 9 is considered corrective. Attention is on resistance at 132.03, the Apr 7 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 132.56, the Feb 28 high. Firm support lies at 128.60, the Apr 9 low. A break of this level would alter the picture.

The anticipated release of earnings from China major banks sees an earnings downdraft as stimulus measures last year eroded margins and now the looming trade war poses a further threat. ICBC saw net income down 4% in Q1 driving shares lower by 6%. 

In Korea Samsung shares were down even though net income was better than expected as forward looking assessments question the ability to sustain the chip demand seen in recent reporting periods. 

• A quiet day for China’s major bourses, weighed down by the banking results with the Hang Seng up just +0.22%, CSI 300 +0.07%, Shanghai Comp -0.08% and Shenzhen the outperformer up +0.94%.
• The KOSPI was the one of the strugglers today as it slipped -0.63% on tech concerns, fuelled by Samsung’s release.
• Malyaia's FTSE KLCI  bounced back from yesterdays fall to gain +0.83% today.
• Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite continued its good run gaining +0.45 and is up over 4% for the month.
• The FTSE Straits Times in Singapore rose +0.39% and the PSEi in Philippines jumped +1.54% on strong trade data.
• India’s NIFTY 50 is up +0.21% in early trading and if maintained has delivered gains of over +3.5% for the month.