SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Bull Cycle Remains In Play

Goldman Sachs have reduced their “S&P 500 3-month and 12-month return forecasts to -5% and +6% (previously +0% and +16%). Based on market prices at the end of last week, these suggest S&P 500 index levels of roughly 5,300 and 5,900, respectively”.

• They note that “higher tariffs, weaker economic growth, and greater inflation than we previously assumed lead us to cut our S&P 500 EPS growth forecasts to +3% in 2025 (from +7%) and +6% in 2026 (from +7%). Our new EPS estimates are $253 and $269, respectively. These estimates are below both the top-down strategist consensus and the bottom-up consensus of equity analysts”.
• Their economists “estimate a 35% probability that the U.S. economy enters a recession during the next 12 months”.
• They “continue to recommend investors watch for an improvement in the growth outlook, more asymmetry in market pricing, or depressed positioning before trying to trade a market bottom”.
• Although their “sentiment Indicator has declined sharply during the last few weeks (to -1.2), it remains above levels reached at the troughs of other major sell-offs during recent years (-2.0 or lower)”.

• RES 4: 130.40 Low Feb 19               
• RES 3: 130.26 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 11 bear leg        
• RES 2: 130.00 Round number resistance  
• RES 1: 129.41 Low Jan 14 and a key short-term resistance                     
• PRICE: 129.33@ 05:54 BST Mar 31
• SUP 1: 128.65 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 127.74 Low Mar 25 and a key short-term support             
• SUP 3: 127.20 Low Mar 17  
• SUP 4: 126.53 Low Mar 11 and the bear trigger   

Bund futures have started the week on a bullish note, extending the recovery that started Mar 11. Recent gains are considered corrective, however, the recent breach of the 20-day EMA has exposed resistance at 129.41, the Jan 14 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish theme and open the 130.00 handle and 130.26, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support to watch lies at 127.74, the Mar 25 low.

• * The ongoing, gradual improvement in economic data was evident in today's March PMI release.   The Manufacturing PMI for March edged up to +50.5, from +50.2 in February, ahead of expectations.   This was the highest reading since March last year. New orders were very strong, rising +51.8.  Large enterprises' contribution was the biggest component.   The employment component slipped to +48.2, from +48.6.  The Non-manufacturing PMI improved also rising to +50.8, from +50.4 prior.  Within the Non-manufacturing, the largest positive contributor was Business activity expectations which rose do +57.2, from +56.6.  (source: MNI -Market News)
• China’s Finance Ministry will inject USD$69bn into the four major banks via share placements in a bid to shore up their capital position to support lending (source: MOF)
• China's equity markets are down heavily today with the Hang Seng down -1.7%, CSI 300 down -1.00%, Shanghai down -0.95% and Shenzhen down -2.05%.
• CNY:  Yuan Reference Rate at 7.1782 Per USD; Estimate 7.2644
• Bonds are marginally lower in yield, following the injection of liquidity during the OMO.  CGB 10YR 1.81%