US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M5) Bear Mode Condition
May-14 15:15
- RES 4: 112-20+ High May 1 and a bull trigger
- RES 3: 112-01+ High May 2
- RES 2: 111-22 High May 7 and a key near-term resistance
- RES 1: 111-01 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 109-28+ @ 16:04 BST May 14
- SUP 1: 109-28 Low May 14
- SUP 2: 109-08 Low Apr 11 and key support
- SUP 3: 108-26+ 76.4% retracement of the Jan 13 - Apr 7 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 108-21 Low Feb 19
Treasury futures extended a softer tone following recent weakness. Support at 110-01+, 76.4% of the Apr 11 - May 1 bull leg, has been cleared. The breach strengthens a bearish theme and exposes a key support at 109-08, the Apr 24 low and a bear trigger. Key near-term resistance has been defined at 111-22, the May 7 high. A move above this level is required to signal a potential reversal.
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FED: US TSY 13W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $2.372 BLN FROM $76.000 BLN TOTAL
Apr-14 15:15
- US TSY 13W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $2.372 BLN FROM $76.000 BLN TOTAL
FED: US TSY 26W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $1.548 BLN FROM $68.000 BLN TOTAL
Apr-14 15:15
- US TSY 26W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $1.548 BLN FROM $68.000 BLN TOTAL
GILTS: 10s Consolidate Early Outperformance vs Bunds; Labour Data Tomorrow Morn
Apr-14 15:12
Early Gilt outperformance against Bunds has consolidated through the session, with the 10-year Gilt/Bund spread still 4.5bps tighter at 214bps.
- 30s lead the recovery from Friday’s lows, with benchmark yields down 12.5bps at typing to 5.39%. This seems to represent an unwind of the weak price action last week, rather than any reassessment of UK economic fundamentals.
- Beta to US Treasuries will also be factoring in, with UST yields 4.5-11.0bps lower at typing.
- Gilt futures are +89 ticks at 91.53, just shy of earlier session highs of 91.61. The 20-day EMA at 91.84 remains initial resistance.
- The SONIA strip has twist flattened, with whites -1.0 to -2.0 ticks and blues +3.0 to +4.5 ticks.
- BOE-dated OIS price 23bps of easing through May (0.5bps more hawkish than Friday’s close), while August ’25 implied cuts have deepened 2bps to 48bps in today’s session.
- Labour market data headlines tomorrow’s macro calendar. Our preview will be out shortly.
| Meeting Date | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
| May-25 | 4.231 | -22.7 |
| Jun-25 | 4.156 | -30.2 |
| Aug-25 | 3.979 | -47.9 |
| Sep-25 | 3.885 | -57.3 |
| Nov-25 | 3.751 | -70.7 |
| Dec-25 | 3.709 | -74.9 |
| Feb-26 | 3.649 | -80.9 |
| Apr-26 | 3.641 | -81.7 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg |
