LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 25-Oct | 745 | FR | Consumer Sentiment |
| 25-Oct | 800 | ES | PPI |
| 25-Oct | 900 | EU | M3 |
| 25-Oct | 900 | IT | ISTAT Business/ Consumer Confidence |
| 25-Oct | 900 | DE | IFO Business Climate Index |
| 25-Oct | 900 | EU | ECB Consumer Expectations Survey |
| 25-Oct | 1400 | BE | BNB Business Sentiment |
| 28-Oct | 1945 | EU | ECB's De Guindos speech and Q&A at Foros Reflexión |
| 29-Oct | 700 | DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 30-Oct | 630 | FR | Consumer Spending / GDP (p) |
| 30-Oct | 700 | DE | GDP (p) |
| 30-Oct | 800 | ES | HICP (p) / GDP (p) |
| 30-Oct | 855 | DE | Unemployment |
| 30-Oct | 900 | IT | GDP (p) / PPI |
| 30-Oct | 900 | DE | North Rhine Westphalia CPI / Bavaria CPI |
| 30-Oct | 1000 | EU | EMU Preliminary Flash GDP |
| 30-Oct | 1000 | EU | EZ Economic Sentiment Indicator |
| 30-Oct | 1300 | DE | HICP (p) |
| 30-Oct | 1500 | EU | ECB's Schnabel speech at SAFE-CEPR conference |
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BTP TECHS: (Z4) Monitoring Support
- RES 4: 122.78 3.236 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 3: 122.22 3.00 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 2: 122.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 121.59 High Sep 17 and key resistance
- PRICE: 121.29 @ Close Sep 24
- SUP 1: 120.25/17 20-day EMA / Low Sep 19
- SUP 2: 119.32 Low Sep 9
- SUP 3: 118.85 Low Sep 4
- SUP 4: 118.16 Low Sep 2 and key support
The M/T trend condition in BTP futures is bullish and recent fresh trend highs reinforce this condition. However, the strong reversal from the Sep 17 high, highlights the start of a correction and a deeper retracement would allow an overbought condition to unwind. Support to watch is 120.25, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal scope for a deeper retracement. On the upside, 121.59, the Sep 17 high, is the bull trigger. A break resumes the uptrend.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply
Italy and Germany still look to hold auctions this week and Portugal an exchange, whilst the ESM, Spain and Slovenia have already held syndications and the EU, Belgium, and Germany have already held auctions. We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E36.8bln, up from E28.9bln last week.
- Italy will hold a BTP Short Term and BTPei auction today. E2.25-2.75bln of the on-the-run 3.10% Aug-26 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005607269) will be on offer alongside E1.00-1.25bln of the 5-year 1.50% May-29 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005543803) and E1.00-1.25bln of the 15-year 2.40% May-39 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005547812).
- Also today, Portugal will hold an exchange auction. IGCP looks to sell the on-the-run 15-year 3.50% Jun-38 OT (ISIN: PTOTEZOE0014), the on-the-run 20-year 1.15% Apr-42 OT (ISIN: PTOTEPOE0032) and the 1.00% Apr-52 OT (ISIN: PTOTECOE0037). IGCP looks to buy back the 2.875% Jul-26 OT (ISIN: PTOTETOE0012) and the 4.125% Apr-27 OT (ISIN: PTOTEUOE0019).
- Germany will return to the market today to sell E3bln of the 2.40% Nov-30 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU27006).
- Italy on Friday will conclude the week’s issuance by holding a 5/10-year BTP and CCTeu auction. On offer will be
E0.75-1.00bln of the 3.00% Aug-29 BTP (ISIN: IT0005365165), E2.0-2.5bln of the on-the-run 5-year 3.00% Oct-29 BTP (ISIN: IT0005611055), E3.0-3.5bln of the on-the-run 10-year 3.85% Feb-35 BTP (ISIN: IT0005607970) and E1.25-1.75bln of the Oct-30 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005491250).
For more details on issuance this week and next week see the full document here: EZ240925.pdf
EURJPY TECHS: Recovery Exposes Resistance At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 163.89 High Aug a5 and a reversal trigger
- RES 3: 162.89 High Sep 2 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 161.70 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 161.19 High Sep 23
- PRICE: 160.41 @ 06:43 BST Sep 25
- SUP 1: 157.05/155.15 Low Sep 18 / Low Sep 16
- SUP 2: 154.42 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 154.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
A bear cycle in EURJPY remains intact and the latest recovery is considered corrective - for now. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and this continues to highlight a dominant downtrend. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this signals scope for a stronger recovery near-term, towards 161.70, the 50-day EMA and an important area of resistance. A reversal lower would refocus attention on the key support at 154.42, the Aug 5 low.
