US TSY FUTURES: Long Setting In TY Dominated On Tuesday
OI data points to a mix of net long setting and short cover during yesterday’s uptick in Tsy futures, with the only positioning swing of note coming via long setting in TY futures (~$3.7mln DV01 equivalent).
| 18-Mar-25 | 17-Mar-25 | Daily OI Change | OI DV01 Equivalent Change ($) |
TU | 3,811,430 | 3,818,608 | -7,178 | -280,158 |
FV | 6,294,316 | 6,287,813 | +6,503 | +283,828 |
TY | 4,864,454 | 4,807,070 | +57,384 | +3,691,362 |
UXY | 2,273,751 | 2,266,807 | +6,944 | +619,689 |
US | 1,771,230 | 1,776,997 | -5,767 | -755,757 |
WN | 1,779,828 | 1,777,845 | +1,983 | +383,627 |
|
| Total | +59,869 | +3,942,591 |
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EURIBOR: EURIBOR FIX - 17/02/25
EURIBOR FIX - EMMI/Bloomberg.
- EUR001W 2.6390 0.0260
- EUR001M 2.6160 0.0120
- EUR003M 2.5100 -0.0120
- EUR006M 2.4890 -0.0250
- EUR012M 2.4240 -0.0140
EUROPEAN DATA: Larger Than Expected Trade Surplus On Import Weakness
- The Eurozone trade surplus printed close to consensus in December, at a seasonally adjusted E14.6bn (cons E14.5bn) after an upward revised E13.3bn (originally E12.9bn).
- The larger surplus was for the ‘wrong’ reasons, coming as the decline in imports (-0.8% M/M) outstripped that of exports (-0.2% M/M).
- This story was exaggerated for the EU as a whole, with a surplus widening from E10.1bn to E12.9bn (sa) as imports fell -1.2% M/M vs exports 0.1% M/M.
- Turning to the broader EU nsa data, extra-EU export growth stood at 3.7% Y/Y vs 3.9% Y/Y for extra-EU imports, whilst intra-EU trade was more subdued at just 1.6% Y/Y.
- One of the fastest growing areas of exports was for chemicals & related products (14.3% Y/Y), as we’ve noted one of the more vulnerable areas to US tariffs considering its magnitude within EU-US trade.
- By country, trade with the US was mixed the month ahead of Trump’s inauguration, with overall exports rising 5.6% Y/Y vs overall import growth of -10.8% Y/Y.
COMMODITIES: WTI Futures Remain Below 50-Day EMA
WTI futures have pulled back from last week’s high and price has again traded below the 50-day EMA - at $72.08. Attention is on $70.43, the Feb 6 low. It has been pierced, a clear break would undermine a bullish theme and confirm a breach of the 50-day EMA. This would strengthen a bearish threat and open $68.05, the Dec 20 ‘24 low. Key S/T resistance has been defined at $75.18. A move above this level is required to reinstate a bull theme. A bull cycle in Gold remains in play and the yellow metal continues to trade closer to its latest highs. Recent gains once again confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on the $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. The first key support to watch is $2826.5, the 20-day EMA.
- WTI Crude up $0.12 or +0.17% at $70.86
- Natural Gas down $0.09 or -2.42% at $3.637
- Gold spot up $20.92 or +0.73% at $2903.75
- Copper down $3.3 or -0.7% at $468
- Silver up $0.35 or +1.08% at $32.4489
- Platinum up $3.97 or +0.4% at $988.13
