EM LATAM CREDIT: Liverpool: $ 12Y New Issue Guidance

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate for Q4 2025 has been marked down to 2.7% Q/Q SAAR (2.68% unrounded) from 3.0% in its prior update on Dec 23 (2.97% unrounded) and 4.3% in Q3.

• The major data development between then and now was today's relatively soft ISM Manufacturing index, which saw the growth forecast for equipment investment downgraded to -3.2% Q/Q SAAR from -2.4% (and +5.4% in Q3), while personal consumption expenditures were downgraded to 2.4% from 2.7% (3.5% in Q3).
• Combined, those two downgrades shaved off 0.26pp from the overall GDP estimate.
• We get the next GDPNow update on Thursday, after the publication of ISM Services, international trade, and wholesale trade among other data points. 

Headed through the London close, the USD Index trades close to the lowest levels of the day, leaving markets holding close to the entirety of the ISM-triggered move. This keeps EURUSD above 1.17 and GBPUSD above 1.35 through the close. Despite the impressive intraday reversal, both pairs are still well inside the recent range, however, leaving notable resistance levels untroubled for now.

• For some, today marks the first full trading session of the year, and it is worth noting the somewhat erratic price action in GBPUSD headed through the WMR fix both today, Friday and (to a lesser extent) on December 31st, all of which saw a sizeable bid in GBP (excepting Dec31, where GBP was sold) through the fix, before a partial reversal.
• AUDUSD's clearance of 0.67 ahead of the close today keeps the short-term outlook bullish to keep focus on the bull trigger into 0.6728, the Dec 29 and range high. CPI data due Wednesday should prove influential here, marking the new monthly series and a direct input into the February 3rd RBA decision.

• US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.540%(ALLOT 77.13%)
• US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 39.51% OF COMPETITIVES
• US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 7.86% OF COMPETITIVES
• US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 52.63% OF COMPETITIVES
• US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 2.84