OIL: Little Changed, Downside Pressure May Build If Risk Aversion Persists
Oil benchmarks sit little changed in the first part of Wednesday trade, somewhat on the sidelines, as broader risk trends in equities and crypto dominate. WTI was last near $60.50/bbl, with support still evident on moves sub $60.00/bbl at this stage. WTI futures remain in a corrective cycle for now though. Price recently traded through the 50-day EMA at $61.03, signaling scope for a stronger recovery, with sights on key resistance at $65.77, the Sep 26 high. Brent was close to $64.40/bbl in latest dealings. Since late Oct, support has been evident under the $64/bbl level.
- If the risk off move extends, oil may see more downside, as this may turn into broader global growth concerns. Inventory data already suggests near term oversupply is evident in the US.
- OPEC+ appears to be getting more mindful of further supply boosts post the weekend's modest increase for Q4 and pause into the first part of 2026.
- Still, demand concerns may keep a cap on prices until risk sentiment stabilizes/improves in the equity space.
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BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: 118.170 Low Sep 10
- RES 3: 118.090 High Sep 17 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 2: 118.040 High Sep 18
- RES 1: 117.950 High Oct 1
- PRICE: 117.750 @ 06:03 BST Oct 6
- SUP 1: 117.630/470 Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 25
- SUP 2: 117.450 1.000 proj of the Sep 8 - 12 - 17 price swing
- SUP 3: 117.299 1.236 proj of the Sep 8 - 12 - 17 price swing
- SUP 4: 117.080 Low Sep 2 (cont.)
The latest bounce in Bobl futures still appears corrective and the trend condition is bearish. A price sequence of lower lows and lower highs is intact and on the continuation chart, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 117.450, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key short-term resistance is 118.090, the Sep 18 high. A move above this level would signal a potential reversal.
LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 06-Oct | 0800 | ES | Industrial Production |
| 06-Oct | 0815 | EU | ECB de Guindos Speech at Diario Expansion |
| 06-Oct | 0830 | EU | S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
| 06-Oct | 0830 | FR | HCOB France Construction PMI |
| 06-Oct | 0900 | EU | ECB Lane Keynote at ECB MonPol Conference |
| 06-Oct | 1000 | EU | EZ Retail Sales |
| 06-Oct | 1800 | EU | ECB Lagarde at ECON Hearing, European Parliament |
| 07-Oct | 0700 | DE | Manufacturing Orders |
| 07-Oct | 0745 | FR | Foreign Trade |
| 07-Oct | 1710 | EU | ECB Lagarde Speech at Business France Event |
| 08-Oct | 0700 | DE | Industrial Production |
| 08-Oct | 1130 | EU | ECB Elderson In Panel at Finance Conference |
| 08-Oct | 1700 | EU | ECB Lagarde Video Message at Werner Report Event |
| 09-Oct | 0700 | DE | Trade Balance |
| 09-Oct | --- | EU | ECB Lagarde & Cipollone at Eurogroup Meeting |
| 09-Oct | 1600 | EU | ECB Lane Roundtable at Irish Investment Managers Event |
| 10-Oct | 1000 | IT | Industrial Production |
| 10-Oct | --- | EU | ECB de Guindos at ECOFIN Meeting |
EURUSD TECHS: Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: 1.2063 2.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 247 price swing
- RES 3: 1.2000 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.1919/23 High Sep 17 / 2.0 proj of Feb 28 - Mar 18-27 swing
- RES 1: 1.1820 High Sep 23
- PRICE: 1.1723 @ 06:08 BST Oct 6
- SUP 1: 1.1690/46 50-day EMA / Low Sep 25
- SUP 2: 1.1574 Low Aug 27
- SUP 3: 1.1528 Low Aug 5
- SUP 4: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger.
EURUSD is in consolidation mode and continues to trade above its recent lows. The primary trend direction is up and recent weakness appears corrective. Support to watch lies at 1.1690, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of the EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 1.1574, the Aug 27 low. For bulls, a clear resumption of gains would open 1.1923, a Fibonacci projection.
