SWEDEN: LFS Unemployment Rate Rebounds But Downward 3mma Trend Intact
The Swedish LFS unemployment rate bounced back to 8.4% in February after 8.0% in January and 8.8% in December. This was in line with the median analyst estimate. That also leaves the 3mma unemployment rate at 8.4%, tracking below the Riksbank’s 8.9% forecast for Q1 from the December MPR. Public Employment Service (PES) data has been signalling for a decline in the LFS unemployment rate for some time. At next week’s Riksbank decision, the Board will likely express cautious optimism around the labour market through 2026, albeit with the Iran war adding heightened uncertainty to the outlook.
- In February, the ~22k increase in unemployed persons was due to a larger labour force. The number of employed persons actually rose 0.3% M/M.
- The 3mma employment rate was 69.6% in February, the highest since July 2023. 3m/3m employment growth of 0.9% was the sixth consecutive increase, an impressive result given vacancy levels in the PES data remain a little soft.
- Meanwhile, the participation rate has been around 76% for several months now.
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US TSY OPTIONS: Downside Plays
Downside exposure was sought in the Asia-London handover:
- FVH6 108.25 puts paper paid 0.5 on 6K
- TYJ6 109.50 puts paper paid 3 on 6K
BRENT TECHS: (J6) Corrective Phase
- RES 4: $75.93 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 5 - 14 - 19 price swing
- RES 3: $73.33 - High Jun 23 ‘25 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 2: $72.00 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $70.58 - High Jan 29 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $69.32 @ 07:07 GMT Feb 11
- SUP 1: $66.31 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $64.41 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $62.59 - Low Jan 19
- SUP 4: $59.44 - Low Jan 5
A bull theme in Brent futures remains intact, however, note that the sharp reversal from the Jan 29 high, continues to highlight a corrective cycle. Support to watch lies at $66.54, the 20-day EMA. Support the 50-day EMA, is at $64.58. The area between these two averages represents a key support zone. A clear breach of the 50-day average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger is $70.58, the Jan 29 high.
US TSY OPTIONS: TUH6 104.375 Calls Trading
TUH6 104.375 calls ~4K lots trade at 0-06+ over the last hour or so, mix of buying and selling as small bids and offers show at that level.
