STIR: Less Than 35bp Of BoE Cuts Priced

• RES 4: 92.31 High Nov 12
• RES 3: 92.00 Round number resistance         
• RES 2: 91.78/93 High Dec 17 / High Nov 27
• RES 1: 91.18 High Dec 23      
• PRICE: 91.28 @ Close Dec 29
• SUP 1: 90.50 Low Dec 16       
• SUP 2: 90.28 Low Nov 21  
• SUP 3: 90.00 Round number support    
• SUP 4: 89.86 Low Nov 19 and the bear trigger     

Recent price action in Gilt futures highlights 90.50, the Dec 16 low, and 91.93, the Nov 27 high, as two important short-term directional triggers. A clear breach of support at 90.50 would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 89.86, the Nov 19 low and a bear trigger. For bulls, a stronger resumption of gains and a breach of 91.93, would instead signal scope for a climb towards resistance at 92.55, the Nov 11 high.

• RES 4: $70.16 - High Jun 23 and a key medium-term resistance 
• RES 3: $64.97 - High Sep 26
• RES 2: $61.25 - High Oct 24 and a key resistance  
• RES 1: $58.59 - 50-day EMA    
• PRICE: $58.05 @ 07:23 GMT Dec 30
• SUP 1: $54.89 - Low Dec 16
• SUP 2: $54.71 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 3: $53.77 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing
• SUP 4: $52.27 - 2.000 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing   

The trend condition in WTI futures remains bearish and gains are considered corrective - for now. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A key support and the bear trigger at $56.11, the Oct 17 low, has recently been breached. The break highlights a continuation of the downtrend and opens $53.77, a Fibonacci projection. Key S/T resistance is $61.25, the Oct 24 high. First resistance is at $58.59, the 50- day EMA.

A reminder that Eurex is closed for trading in all derivatives on Wednesday 31 December 2025 and Thursday 1 January 2026. Meanwhile, European STIRs and bond futures listed on ICE Europe will close at 12:15 London on Wednesday 31 December 2025, with the exchange also closed on Thursday 1 January 2026.