CANADA: LeBlanc To Speak Thursday, US Trade Negotiations Eyed

The USD/JPY overnight range was 153.31 - 154.35, Asia is currently trading around {USDJPY Curncy}. USD/JPY has collapsed thanks to the FED checking rates implying should Japan intervene they will be supported . If the market's take is correct this is a big deal but as of yet it looks to have been little more than words, I feel there will need to be real and active intervention and the participation of the FED would need to be key to give it any real probability of success. For the moment the collapse lower has released a pressure valve causing leveraged funds and CTA’s to have to pare back large JPY shorts, but I suspect unless we get something more significant and clarity around FED involvement dips could remain supported and it will eventually turn back up. In today's Asian session, we could continue to see shorter term players and CTA’s continue to reduce, first sell-zone is 155.00 and then 156.00. The price though has moved quickly back toward the long-term support between 152-154 and I suspect buyers could start to return at some point. 

• Bloomberg - “Japan’s top currency chief Atsushi Mimura said authorities in Tokyo will respond to movements in the foreign-exchange market appropriately as needed in close coordination with their counterparts in Washington.”
• “Yen Intervention Would Create Opportunity to Short, Says CIBC AM. “Normally intervention fights against the fundamental tide and in this case Takaichi’s fiscal policy is not helpful, whether that’s to JGB yields or to the yen,” said Michael Sager, head of multi-asset and currency management at the firm” - BBG
• CFTC Data up to 20/01/2026 shows Asset Managers continued to pare back their JPY longs, +19404(Last +30177). The Leveraged community slightly decreased their large shorts heading into the BOJ, -89657k(Last -103741).
• Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 157.00($886m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 153.75($1.226b Jan 29), 156.00($1.33b Jan 30) - BBG.
• The USD/JPY Average True Range(ATR) for the last 10 Trading days: 154 Points
• Data/Event : PPI Services, Machine Tool Orders YoY

Fig 1 : JPY CFTC Data

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

• South Korea to Sell 500B Won 2.75% 20-Year Bonds
• Hong Kong to Sell HK$15 Billion 182-Day Bills .
• Hong Kong to Sell HK$63.831 Billion 91-Day Bills .
• Bank of Thailand to Sell 65 Billion Thb of 91-Days Bills On...
• MAS to Sell 12-Week Bills .
• MAS to Sell 4-Week Bills .
• Indonesia to Sell 5% 2030 Sukuk Bonds .
• Indonesia to Sell 6.5% 2039 Sukuk Bonds .
• Indonesia to Sell 5.875% 2028 Sukuk Bonds .
• Indonesia to Sell 6.875% 2049 Sukuk Bonds .
• Indonesia to Sell 256-Day Sukuk Bills .
• Indonesia to Sell 6.75% 2043 Sukuk Bonds .
• Indonesia to Sell 39-Day Sukuk Bills .
• Indonesia to Sell 193-Day Sukuk Bills .
• MAS to Sell S$21.8 Billion 84-Day Bills .
• MAS to Sell S$13.7 Billion 28-Day Bills .
• Taiwan to Sell NT$400 Million 30-Year Bonds
• Philippines to Sell 3-Year Bonds .
• Philippines to Sell  20-Year Bonds .
• Bank Indonesia to Sell 181-Day Bills .
• Bank Indonesia to Sell 90-Day Bills .
• Bank Indonesia to Sell 32-Day Bills .
• Bank Indonesia to Sell 273-Day Bills .
• Bank Indonesia to Sell 365-Day Bills .

source:  Bloomberg Finance LP / MNI