SOFR & Treasury put option flow continued to revolve around low delta downside puts as underlying rates continued to extend lows through the second half. Curves bear flattened with bonds underperforming after today's $25B 30Y auction tailed. Projected rate cut pricing cools vs. morning levels (*) as follows: Jun'25 at steady at -4.2bp, Jul'25 at -16.7bp (-18.7bp), Sep'25 -34.2bp (-38.4bp), Oct'25 -49.2bp (-55.7bp)
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EURGBP maintains a bullish tone and the cross is holding on to its latest gains. A key resistance at 0.8474, the Jan 20 high, has been cleared. The breach of this hurdle highlights an important technical break and strengthens a bullish condition. Sights are 0.8593 next, the Aug 14 ‘24 high. On the downside, firm support lies at 0.8397, the 20-day EMA. The cross is overbought, a pullback would allow this condition to unwind.
Swap spreads have gapped to inverted session lows amid heavy swap-tied buying in short end over the last 30 minutes, 2Y through 5Y spds contract 4.5-5.0bp, 10Y swap -4.0 to -56.81 at the moment.