US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup

• This month’s household survey should be a somewhat cleaner read than February, which owing to a delay stemming from last year’s government shutdown unusually included a revision for the population control back on January levels.
• Indeed, understanding February dynamics depends largely on figuring in the annual revisions, though overall February's household report looked largely weak.
• We’ll watch participation rates, with the overall rate expected to edge up to 62.1% from 62.05% in Feb, after a marked downward revision to 62.1% back in January from the 62.5% first reported (due to revised demographics) which meant the lowest since late 2021 as opposed to a nine-month high.
• Elsewhere, we watch the underemployment rate which puzzled in February as it fell for a third consecutive month to 7.9% for its lowest since Jul 2025, most recently helped by the largest drop in those working part-time for economic reasons since mid-2022. 

• The unemployment rate meanwhile is expected to hold at 4.4% in March although with a skew towards 4.5%, unsurprising considering it was 4.44% in February.
• Average the mixed January and February reports and the 4.38% sits between the heavily caveated 4.47% averaged in Q4 (government shutdown disruption) and 4.34% in Q3.
• That broad stability, both realized and expected, continues to defy a scenario that the most dovish FOMC members had envisaged back in the December SEP (seven members pencilled in 4.6-4.7% in 4Q25).
• More timely forecasts from the updated March SEP continue to show little additional deterioration expected to end-2026 however, with a median FOMC member pencilling in 4.4% in 4Q26. Thirteen of nineteen members eye 4.4-4.5%, whilst four see 4.2-4.3% and two 4.6-4.7%. 

• RES 4: 0.7123 High Mar 18
• RES 3: 0.7062 High Mar 23    
• RES 2: 0.6986 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.6966 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6941 @ 16:45 BST Apr 1
• SUP 1: 0.6833 Low Mar 30
• SUP 2: 0.6767 High Jan 7
• SUP 3: 0.6711 Trendline support drawn from the Apr 9 ‘25 low
• SUP 4: 0.6701 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 ‘25 - Mar 11 bull leg  

A bear cycle in AUDUSD remains intact for now, following the pullback that started Mar 11. The pair has recently traded through the 50-day EMA and this undermines a bull theme plus signals scope for a deeper retracement. Sights are on the 0.6800 handle ahead of an important trendline support at 0.6711 The trendline is drawn from the Apr 9 ‘25 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6986, the 20-day EMA. Gains for now, appear corrective.