US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: Sentiment Tempered Ahead Weekend

May-01 19:04

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* Stocks are mixed late Friday, off early session highs after a series of midday headlines regardi...

Historical bullets

EURJPY TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

Apr-01 19:00
  • RES 4: 186.87 High Jan 23 and a key M/T resistance  
  • RES 3: 186.36 High Feb 9
  • RES 2: 185.05 76.4% retracement of the Feb 9 - 12 bear leg
  • RES 1: 184.77 High Feb 25 and a key resistance
  • PRICE: 184.09 @ 16:41 BST Apr 1
  • SUP 1: 182.59/181.87 Low Mar 30 / 16 and a key short-term support
  • SUP 2: 180.81 Low Feb 12 and a reversal trigger 
  • SUP 3: 180.10 Low Dec 5 ‘25
  • SUP 4: 179.30 23.6% of the Feb 28 ‘25 - Jan 23 bull cycle 

EURJPY continues to trade below its most recent highs. The cross is once again also trading below the base of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 ‘25 low, currently at 184.47. The channel break continues to highlight a stronger reversal threat and signals scope for a test of the next key support at 180.81, the Feb 12 low. Resistance to watch is 184.77, the Feb 25 high. A clear break of this hurdle would instead signal a reversal.   

IRAN: President Pezeshkian's Letter Offers Few Clues On War State Of Play

Apr-01 18:57

Below is the summary of the text of the "open letter to the American people" from Iranian President Pezeshkian, per IRNA. In short, it doesn't appear to contain anything truly new vs previous rhetoric, and certainly nothing concrete in terms of negotiations with the US. As such it produced a very small relief rally in risk assets which had earlier weakened on anticipation of what the letter might say. 

  • "Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian addressed the American public in a letter released on Wednesday, inviting people in that country to look beyond political rhetoric and reconsider the realities of Iran's past, present, and aspirations for a future defined not by confrontation, but by truth, dignity, and mutual understanding. The president said in his letter that in a world shaped by competing narratives and deep geopolitical tensions, the relationship between Iran and the United States remains one of the most misunderstood. He emphasized that Iran has never, in its modern history, chosen the path of aggression, expansion, colonialism, or domination, and never initiated any war."
  • Full text is here
  • It concludes: "Today, the world stands at crossroads. Continuing along the path of confrontation is more costly and futile than ever before. The choice between confrontation and engagement is both real and consequential; its outcome will shape the future for generations to come. Throughout its millennia of proud history, Iran has outlasted many aggressors. All that remains of them are tarnished names in history, while Iran endures—resilient, dignified, and proud."
  • Attention remains firmly on US President Trump's address at 9pm ET.

US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: Dueling War Rhetoric

Apr-01 18:54
  • Still higher, US equity indexes trimmed gains after Iranian President "addressed" Americans in a letter late Wednesday, an imminent cease fire or cessation of hostilities unlikely.
  • Meanwhile President Donald Trump will deliver an ‘address to the nation’ on Iran tonight at 2100ET. A recent pivot in messaging suggests the White House is looking to build an off-ramp to the war. It is unclear what Trump intends to say, but evidence is mounting that Trump is edging towards declaring a military victory that could lay the groundwork for a demobilisation of US forces.
  • Stocks climbed to the best levels since mid- to late-March earlier, while Information Technology sector shares continue to lead advances in the second half, shares of Western Digital outperforming at +9.5% while the following gained 6.5% to 7.5%: Micron Technology, Lumentum Holdings, Intel Corp, Sandisk Corp and Seagate Technology Holdings.
  • Industrials next up, led by transportation and construction shares, the following gaining 3.0% to 4.0%: Comfort Systems, Vertiv Holdings, Boeing, United Airlines Holdings, General Electric, EMCOR Group and Caterpillar.
  • A broad swath of oil and gas shares underperformed as crude prices declined (WTI below $100/bbl), the following trading -4% to -6.5%: Exxon Mobil, Occidental Petroleum, Chevron, Phillips 66 and Marathon Petroleum Corp.