US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: Broadly Weaker But Off Lows

• June nonfarm payrolls readings in recent years suggest this month’s release with be another test of the hiring side of a “low hiring, low firing” labor market, although to a lesser extent than was the case in April or May.
• The past three June figures have increased an average 680k in non-seasonally adjusted terms, decreasing from 912k in 2022, 663k in 2023 and 466k in 2024 in signs of the trend moderation compared to a narrow range of circa 650k in 2016-19.
• This is a less pronounced hiring month than April (836k in 2025 after a 2022-24 average of 916k) or May (726k in 2025 after a 2022-24 average of 844k).
• Whilst less of a factor than the previous two monthly reports, this will still bias seasonally adjusted payrolls lower although going against that is what has been an increasingly favorable seasonal factor (i.e. a factor that trims the NSA level of payrolls by the least amount). 

• WTI has extended gains, with the market weighing improved economic prospects ahead of expected US trade deals. The market seems to have already priced in expectations of another large OPEC+ output hike in August.
• WTI Aug 25 is by 3.1% at $67.5/bbl.
• Goldman Sachs sees no major market reaction from OPEC+ production hikes as consensus already shifts to a further increase on Sunday.
• Meanwhile, President Trump has vowed to replenish the US emergency oil reserve, taking advantage of low crude prices.
• For WTI futures, initial resistance to watch is $71.20, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range.
• Elsewhere, spot gold has traded in a tight range ahead of tomorrow’s US payrolls data, with the yellow metal edging up by 0.4% to $3,352/oz.
• Gold’s recovery from Monday’s low highlights a possible false trendline break earlier this week. Stronger gains would refocus attention on $3,451.3, the June 16 high.
• Copper has rallied by 2.1% today to new three-month highs at $521/lb.
• Analysts at Julius Baer said that the move reflects the impact of trade tariffs, with a surge in US imports leaving supply looking tight.
• Copper futures remain in a bull cycle, with price piercing resistance at $514.43. A clear break would pave the way for a climb towards $546.15, the Mar 26 high and a key resistance.

• RES 4: 149.28 High Apr 3  
• RES 3: 148.65 High May 12 and a reversal trigger
• RES 2: 146.19/148.03 High Jun 24 / 23
• RES 1: 144.97 50-day EMA  
• PRICE: 143.87 @ 16:22 BST Jul 2
• SUP 1: 142.68 Low Jul 1   
• SUP 2: 142.12 Low May 27 and a key short-term support 
• SUP 3: 141.96 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - May 12 upleg
• SUP 4: 141.49 Low Apr 23    

A bear threat in USDJPY remains intact and Tuesday’s sell-off reinforces this theme. The Jun 23 shooting star candle formation highlighted a reversal of the recent recovery and this signal remains in play. Note too that price has traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear break of the EMAs strengthens a bearish threat and opens 142.12, the May 27 low and a key short-term support. Initial resistance is at 144.97, the 50-day EMA.