EM LATAM CREDIT: LATAM Credit Market Wrap

• Treasuries bounced off early Tuesday lows, initially tracking a similar move in German Bunds - before settling into a narrow range near session highs since midmorning.
• The US$ resumed its weakening trend on Tuesday, extending the pullback from last week’s highs to ~1.6% in recent trade, further eroding the cautious recovery that had been seen across the first half of July.
• Tsy Sep'25 10Y futures are +7 at 111-13 after the bell vs. -14.5 high, briefly through resistance at 111-13+, the Jul 10 high. A clear break of this hurdle would highlight a stronger reversal. Key support lies at 110-08+, the low on Jul 14 and 16. A move through this support would reinstate the recent bearish theme.
• The Philadelphia Fed's Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey continued to show improvement in July, though cost pressures remained elevated. The regional current general activity index rose to a 6-month high -10.3 from -25.0 prior. This was the 3rd consecutive improvement since bottoming at -42.7 in April amid tariff policy concerns.
• The Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index continues to post solid gains, rising 5.1% Y/Y in the week ending Jul 19, fairly steady compared with 5.2% the prior week.
• Look ahead: Wednesday's data limited to MBA Mortgage Applications at 0700ET, Existing Home Sales follow at 1000ET.

• RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6595 High Jul 11 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 0.6545 @ 16:01 BST Jul 22
• SUP 1: 0.6455 Low Jul 17
• SUP 2: 0.6435 23.6% retracement of the Sep 9 - Jul 11 bull leg  
• SUP 3: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 0.6357 Low May 12

The trend set-up in AUDUSD remains bullish. Support around the 50-day EMA, at 0.6492, has been breached, however, the pair has found support just below the average. A clear break of this EMA would highlight a stronger reversal and signal scope for an extension initially towards 0.6435, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.6595, clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend.      

President Trump says on Truth Social that the US-Indonesia Trade deal is complete - he'd previously announced this deal last week, including the 19% tariff rate (was 32% on "Liberation Day")

@realDonaldTrump: ""It is my Great Honor to announce our Trade Agreement with the Republic of Indonesia, as represented by their Highly Respected President, Prabowo Subianto. It is agreed that Indonesia will be Open Market to American Industrial and Tech Products, and Agricultural Goods, by eliminating 99% of their Tariff Barriers. The United States of America will now sell American Made products to Indonesia at a Tariff Rate of ZERO, while Indonesia will pay 19% on all of their products coming into the U.S.A. — The Best Market in the World! In addition, Indonesia will supply the United States with their precious Critical Minerals, as well as sign BIG Deals, worth Tens of Billions of Dollars, to purchase Boeing Aircraft, American Farm products, and American Energy. This Deal is a HUGE WIN for our Automakers, Tech Companies, Workers, Farmers, Ranchers, and Manufacturers. Thank you for your attention to this matter. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!"