ASIA STOCKS: Large Outflows from South Korea Dominate (amended)
Apr-03 03:33
As the world comes to grips with news of tariffs from the White House, flow data is disrupted at present due to South East Asian holidays, whilst outflows from Korea continue.
- South Korea: Recorded outflows of -$678m yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to -$2,629m. 2025 to date flows are -$6,255m. The 5-day average is -$526m, the 20-day average is -$110m and the 100-day average of -$112m.
- Taiwan: Had inflows of +$19m yesterday, with total outflows of -$3,124m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$18,247. The 5-day average is -$625m, the 20-day average of -$505m and the 100-day average of -$256m.
- Thailand: Recorded inflows of +$46m yesterday, totaling +$12m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$1,084m. The 5-day average is +$2m, the 20-day average of -$26m the 100-day average of -$17m.
- Malaysia: Recorded outflows of -$8m yesterday, totaling -$204m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$2,249m. The 5-day average is -$41m, the 20-day average of -$53m the 100-day average of -$36m.
- Philippines: Saw outflows of -$5m yesterday, with net outflows of -$20m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$214m. The 5-day average is -$4m, the 20-day average of +$2m the 100-day average of -$7m.
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FOREX: Safe Havens Still Outperforming, AUD/JPY Near 92.50
Mar-04 03:15
The skew remains in favor of the safe havens as Tuesday trading unfolds. Yen remains up around 0.20% versus the USD, while CHF has gained a little under 0.10%. Most other currencies are weaker against the USD, with AUD and NZD underperforming. The BBDXY index is little changed, holding under 1293 at the time of writing.
- USD/JPY sits up from lows las tin the 149.20/25 region. Earlier we got to 148.60, which was very close to late Feb lows in the pair (148.57). US yields are lower but up from earlier lows, particularly towards the back end of the curve. This 10yr last near 4.14%, after earlier printing a low of 4.1136%.
- US-JP yield differentials continue to point south for the pair.
- Regional equities are mostly lower, while US futures sit a touch higher. Focus remains on tariffs, will all reports suggesting that they will go ahead against Canada and Mexico. USD/CAD is up above 1.4500. Canada has said it will retaliate immediately against US tariffs. USD/MXN is up 0.50%, last near 2079, which is fresh highs since early Feb.
- AUD/USD is testing under 0.6200, fresh lows for the week, off around 0.40%. AUD/JPY is back close to 92.50/55, entrenched in a downtrend. NZD/USD is holding above 0.5600, but still off 0.25% at this stage.
- The data/event risk calendar is light for the remainder of today's Asia Pac session.
JGBS AUCTION: Poll: 10-Year JGB Auction
Mar-04 03:00
*JAPAN 10Y GOVT BOND AUCTION MAY HAVE 98.26 LOWEST PRICE: POLL – BLOOMBERG
JGBS: Richer At Lunch Ahead Of 10Y Supply
Mar-04 02:41
At the Tokyo lunch break, JGB futures are stronger, +8 compared to settlement levels, after reversing overnight weakness.
- Outside of the previously outlined domestic data drop, there hasn't been much by way of domestic drivers to flag.
- “President Trump's latest criticism about a weak yen may be a good opportunity for Japan to think more seriously about how to fix the excessive depreciation of the yen, which has caused import-price inflation, says SMBC Nikko Securities strategist Makoto Noji.” (per BBG)
- Cash US tsys are 1-3bps richer, with a steepening bias, in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s solid gains.
- Cash JGBs are flat to 3bps richer across benchmarks, with a flattening bias. The benchmark 10-year yield is 1.2bps lower at 1.402% ahead of today’s supply.
- This month, the 10-year auction offers an outright yield 10-15bps higher than last month but 7bps lower than its cyclical high of 1.466%. Additionally, the yield curve between 2- and 10-year bonds has steepened slightly compared to the prior month.
- Today’s auction is also likely to be supported by an improvement in sentiment toward global long-end bonds over the past two months. For instance, the US 10-year yield is roughly 65bps lower than its early January high.
- Swap rates are 1-3bps lower, with a flatter curve. Swap spreads are mostly tighter.
