HUNGARY: Kovacs and Buza to be Confirmed as New Rate Setters Monday, Unemployment Rises to 4%
Mar-24 08:18
- Reuters sources confirming reports from Bloomberg and local sources on Tuesday that Eva Buza and economist Zoltan Kovacs will be nominated by the ruling Fidesz party to fill two expiring seats on the central bank's rate-setting Monetary Council. Parliament's economic affairs committee will hold a confirmation hearing of the two candidates on Monday, the sources said.
- Zoltan Kovacs is a former Post Office CEO whose bio can be found here: https://mccfeszt.hu/eloado/kovacs-zoltan-
- Eva Buza’s can be seen here: https://www.bankszovetseg.hu/szervezet/buza-eva.cs...
- Hungary’s unemployment rate rose 4% in February, in-line with estimates and up from a rate of 3.9% in January.
- Measures aimed at curbing inflation will remain in place until there is a noticeable improvement, MTI report citing Gergely Gulyas, who added that inflation had slowly started to decline and is expected to fall into single digits by the end of the year. Meanwhile, he said the government will decide on every price cap scheme two weeks before they are set to expire.
- Prime Minister Viktor Orban will participate in the second day of an ongoing EU summit in Brussels today.
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EURIBOR: Large outright call buyer
Feb-22 08:16
ERM3 97.00c, bought for 1.5 in 24k
ECB VIEW: Deutsche Bank Up ECB Terminal Rate View
Feb-22 08:12
- Deutsche Bank ECB call: they raise their terminal rate view to 3.75% from 3.25% previously.
- They write that their new baseline has 50bp hikes at both the March and May meetings followed by a final hike of 25bp in June. The view change comes as the euro area economy has momentum and a robust decline in underlying inflation will take time to prove convincingly. Additionally, recent Governing Council commentary has proved hawkish relative to their former base view.
- They conclude that as the terminal rate rises, the drag from monetary tightening in late 2023/early 2024 also rises. Together with the headwind from US recession, euro area growth should slow meaningfully. If bank credit fails to recover into the spring, it may indicate that monetary tightening is having a larger and/or more rapid impact than expected and caution the ECB.
BONDS: US and UK roll pace
Feb-22 08:11
There was a clear pick up in Rolls yesterday.
Roll pace:
- Ultra: 22.5%.
- TBond: 16.0%.
- Ultra 10: 16.0%.
- TYA: 20.5%.
- FVA: 23.0%.
- TUA: 21.0%
- Gilt: 8% (as off yesterday).
