USDCAD TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Intact For Now

• RES 4: 1.3929 High Jan 16 and a reversal trigger     
• RES 3: 1.3879 High Jan 20
• RES 2: 1.3733 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.3725 High Feb 2 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 1.3673 @ 16:25 GMT Feb 18
• SUP 1: 1.3482 Low Jan 30 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 ‘24
• SUP 3: 1.3400 50.0% retracement of the 2021 - 2025 uptrend 
• SUP 4: 1.3359 Low Jan 31 2024     

Tuesday’s push higher in USDCAD resulted in a move through resistance at the 20-day EMA. Key short-term resistance is unchanged at 1.3725, the Feb 2 high. A clear breach of this hurdle would suggest scope for a stronger short-term bull cycle instead. The trend structure remains bearish - MA studies continue to highlight a dominant downtrend. A reversal lower would refocus attention on key support and bear trigger at 1.3482, the Jan 30 low.  

Released yesterday, the Dallas Fed’s timely banking conditions survey showed encouraging signs for both loan demand and NPLs according to 62 institutions in its district over Feb 3-11. As always, whilst a local survey, it offers a more up-to-date take on credit conditions than the national SLOOS for Q4 collected Dec 10-Jan 2. 

• Loan demand: current at 8.2 after 10.9 in the late Dec, -7.2 in Nov and 14.3 in late Sep, but future indications were relatively stronger at 45.2 after 44.6 in late Dec for a fresh high since late 2024.
• NPLs: current at just 1.6 after 7.9 in late Dec, 14.3 in Nov and 1.5 in late Sep, with future also a little more encouraging at 0 after 4.6 in late Dec for its lowest since Apr 2022.
• That came against a backdrop of similar readings for the latest tightening of credit conditions, with a net 6.9% reporting tighter conditions after 8.3% in late Dec. It follows 0% in Nov and 4.7% in late Sep but longer term an average of 10% in 1H25 and 17% in 2024. For context, that 0 in November was the first time conditions hadn’t tightened on net since late 2021. 

• RES 4: 0.7208 61.8% of the Feb 25 ‘21 - Apr 9 ‘25 bear leg   
• RES 3: 0.7186 2.236 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 10 - 18 price swing
• RES 2: 0.7158 High Feb 2 2023
• RES 1: 0.7147 High Feb 12
• PRICE: 0.7067 @ 16:24 GMT Feb 18
• SUP 1: 0.6991 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.6897 Low Feb 6 and key short-term support 
• SUP 3: 0.6850 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.6834 Low Jan 23 

A bullish trend theme in AUDUSD remains intact. Fresh cycle highs last week reinforce current conditions and the move higher confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position and this set-up continues to highlight a dominant medium-term uptrend. Potential is seen for a climb towards 0.7186 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial key support is unchanged at 0.6897, the Feb 6 low.