TURKEY: Kavcioglu Sounds Upbeat on Inflation, Tourism

Apr-28 08:24
  • Kavcıoğlu: We always express the importance of the current balance in terms of sustainable price stability, it is very important that the current balance is formed in the Turkish Economic Model, although there may be a problem, we expect it to reach the point we think with the return to normality.
  • Kavcıoğlu: Within the path we envisaged, we see that inflation started to come down after May.
  • Kavcioglu: We do not see any problems in tourism, we even expect a good increase.
  • Kavcioglu: It seems that a productive period will be entered in agriculture, which will reflect very positively on inflation from May. - HaberTurk

Historical bullets

US TSY FLOWS: Block trades

Mar-29 08:21
  • TYM2 1,133 at 121.15
  • TYM2 975 at 121.15+

GILTS: Yields around 8-10bp off highs

Mar-29 08:14

Gilts have been reversing some of their post-Bailey rally but 10-year yields still remain around 8bp off yesterday's highs with 2-year yields around 10bp off yesterday's highs.

  • Yesterday's moves saw yields up to around 15-years move to their highest levels of the current cycle but 15+ year gilt yields failed to really move above the levels seen ahead of the Spring Statement when a lower than expected remit was announced.
  • However, we have since retraced much of that move, but the front-end of the curve still remains steeper than ahead of the Spring Statement.
  • Headlines are just breaking about the "partygate" Covid rules breaking by Downing Street - this is unlikely to have much market impact but will be a talking point.
  • Main domestic economic event for the UK today is money supply / mortgage approvals data with BOE's Broadbent due to speak tomoroow and the final print of Q4 GDP.

FRANCE: Le Pen Continues To Close Gap On Macron In Second Round Polling

Mar-29 08:03

In rolling Ifop-Fiducial presidential polling, right-wing nationalist Rassemblement National (RN) leader Marine Le Pen continues to narrow the gap between her and incumbent President Emmanuel Macron in a hypothetical second round run-off between the two. The 53%-47% gap between the two is the narrowest recorded by the Ifop-Fiducial rolling tracker since it began collecting data in January. All polls below Ifop-Fiducial, Fieldwork 26-28 March. Chgs w/ 25-27 March. 1,500 respondents

  • Macron (LREM): 53% (-0.5), Le Pen (RN): 47% (+0.5)
  • Macron (LREM): 59.5% (-0.5), Melenchon (LFI): 40.5% (+0.5)
  • Macron (LREM): 64% (-0.5), Zemmour (R!): 36% (+0.5)
  • Macron (LREM): 63% (=), Pecresse (LR): 37% (=)
First round polls from all outlets continue to show a Macron-Le Pen run off as the most likely outcome of the 10 April first round of the presidential election.
  • The official election campaign got underway yesterday, with the amount of airtime each candidate recieves now strictly measured and limited. Comes as a potential disadvantage to Macron and Le Pen as they will recieve the same amount of coverage as candidates from much smaller parties garnering 1%-2% support.