SPAIN DATA: June Labour Market Data Steady, Political Risks Weighing On SPGBs
Jul-02 07:48
There were steady developments in Spanish registered labour market data for June. Unemployment claims fell by 48.9k, broadly in line with June 2024’s -46.8k and 2023’s -50.3k.
- On the employment side, growth of 40.4k was above June 2024’s 34.2k and 2023’s 18.1k, but below 2022 and 2021 changes.
- Looking ahead, the employment outlook in Spain remains fairly solid, with the EC’s expected employment indicator at 109.2 in June (vs 107.1 in May, 108.4 in April).
- Despite Spain's relatively resilient economic outlook, domestic political risks have contributed to SPGB underperformance versus peers through June. PM Sanchez is under growing pressure amid a corruption scandal. Latest from our political risk team on those developments here.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Outright Put buyer
Jun-02 07:46
ERM5 97.87p, bought for 0.25 in 6k.
MNI: ITALY MAY MANUFACTURING PMI 49.2 (49.6 FCAST, 49.3 APRIL)
Jun-02 07:45
- ITALY MAY MANUFACTURING PMI 49.2 (49.6 FCAST, 49.3 APRIL)
GILTS: Selling Off, Curve Steepens
Jun-02 07:34
Gilts sell off with oil prices firming and Spanish manufacturing PMI data topping expectations.
- Ukrainian missile attacks on Russia and U.S. President Trump’s latest tariff threats (a doubling of aluminium tariffs) are also being digested.
- Futures as low as 91.27.
- First support of note not seen until the May 29 low (90.59).
- The bearish technical cycle in the contract remains in play, with our technical analyst still deeming the recent recovery to be corrective.
- Initial resistance located at 91.87.
- Yields 3.5-5.5bp higher, curve steeper.
- 2s10s and 5s30s still ~15bp off respective cycle closing highs.
- Hawkish pressure seen in GBP STIRs as core global FI softens further, leaving SONIA futures little changed to -2.0.
- Boe-dated OIS showing ~35bp of cuts through year-end, with the next 25bp step still fully discounted through November.
- Final manufacturing PMIs and the U.S. ISM manufacturing survey are eyed today.
- Comments from BoE’s Greene (18:00 London) & Mann (text released at 15:00 London) are also due.
- Mann’s comments will come under particular scrutiny, with her only post-May MPC appearance (where she provided hawkish dissent, voting for unchanged rates) providing little in the way of details.
Trending Top
Jan-30 21:43
Jan-30 21:11
