NEW ZEALAND: Jobs Market Still Soft But Stabilising
The deterioration in the labour market appears to have stabilised but a recovery is yet to begin. Filled jobs in April fell 0.1% m/m to be down 1.7% y/y after a 0.1% m/m rise in March but it was also down 1.7% y/y. Vacancies are off their 2024 lows but remain depressed despite rising in March & April. The RBNZ is widely expected to cut rates 25bp today but the focus will be on the updated OCR trajectory and if it signals a possibility of policy going stimulatory.
- Primary industries saw a 0.1% m/m rise in filled jobs, a sector that has seen strong external demand lately. However, goods-producing sectors fell 0.3% m/m and services -0.1% m/m.
- In annual terms, construction jobs are down 6.5% y/y and admin services -6.7% y/y. Retail is down 1.5% y/y.
- Young people have felt the brunt of labour shedding with filled jobs for 15-19 year olds down 10% y/y and 20-24 years -3.9% y/y.
- April SEEK job ads rose 1.1% m/m but are still down 9.6% y/y. 3-month momentum though has been positive this year. Labour supply remains robust with applicants per job ad up 17.5% y/y but the ratio down 3.1% m/m in March, the sharpest monthly drop in over 2 years as migration eases.
NZ job ads vs filled jobs
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
JGBS: Futures Unchanged Overnight On Friday, Light Local Calendar
In post-Tokyo trade, JGB futures closed XX, X compared to settlement levels, after US tsys finished on Friday ~8bp richer across the 2- to -10-year maturities.
- Headline risk trumped data ahead of the weekend. Early Friday headlines suggested some thawing in US-China relations. An interview with President Trump was published in which he said he and China's Xi had been in contact, while the Chinese were considering easing tariffs on some US imports.
- However, President Trump tweeted later that he "Won't Drop China Tariffs Unless They Give Us Something", followed by "People Are Starting To Understand How Good Tariffs Are".
- Gains in US tsys were pared slightly after higher than expected UofM sentiment & current conditions data. Overall 1Y inflation expectations were revised to 6.5% (prelim 6.7%) in the final April release for a still large acceleration from 5.0% in March and its highest since 1981.
- Liquidity across financial markets, including the Treasury market, deteriorated after President Trump's April 2 reciprocal tariffs announcement, but market functioning was generally orderly, according to the Federal Reserve's semiannual report on financial stability, released Friday.
- Today, the local calendar will be empty ahead of tomorrow’s holiday and Thursday's BoJ Policy Decision.
ASIA: Government Bond Issuance Today (Updated)
- Bank of Korea to Sell KRW500bn 91-Day Bonds
- South Korea to Sell KRW1.8tn 2-Year Bonds
- Philippines To Sell PHP 8.0Bln 91D Bills (PH0000058935)
- Philippines To Sell PHP 8.0Bln 182D Bills (PH0000059404)
- Philippines To Sell PHP 9.0Bln 364D Bills (PH0000060279)
- Singapore to Sell S$1.8 Billion Bonds Due 2054
JPY: How Far Can it Bounce
The range Friday night was 143.23 - 144.04, a relatively quiet end to the week considering. Risk is attempting to find a base and move higher as the Trump administration moves to de-escalate tensions. This opens the consensus lower USD trade to further pressure but overall the market believes this could be fleeting and will look to add to shorts on any meaningful bounce.
- (Bloomberg) -- “President Donald Trump suggested Sunday that his sweeping tariffs would help him reduce income taxes for people making less than $200,000 a year, as public anxiety rises over his economic agenda.”
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that US trade talks, especially with Asia are “moving along very well” in an interview with ABC.
- (Bloomberg) -- “Toyota Motor Corp. Chairman Akio Toyoda has proposed a buyout of Toyota Industries Corp., people familiar with the matter said, seeking to consolidate his grip on Japan’s biggest business empire as a wave of merger and acquisition activity roils the country.”
- On the day the 143 handle should continue to see some supply, then more importantly the 145/146 area should once more offer good levels for sellers to reengage.
- CFTC data shows Asset managers continuing to add to JPY longs, leveraged funds are now also beginning to build longs.
Fig 1 : USD/JPY CFTC Holdings
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
