US TSYS: Jobless Claims Rise Most Since July 2021, Fed Speakers Return Friday

• RES 4: 0.6707 High Sep 17 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.6661 2.0% 10-dma Envelope
• RES 2: 0.6644 76.4% retracement of the Sep-Oct bear leg  
• RES 1: 0.6537/0.6618 50-day EMA / High Oct 29
• PRICE: 0.6525 @ 16:29 GMT Nov 11 
• SUP 1: 0.6459 Low Nov 5
• SUP 2: 0.6440 Low Oct 14 and key support 
• SUP 3: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23   

Despite Monday’s recovery - a correction - a bearish short-term tone in AUDUSD remains intact. The recent breach of the 50-day EMA undermines a bullish theme. This has exposed the next key support at 0.6440, the Oct 14 low. Key resistance and a short-term bull trigger is at 0.6618, the Oct 29 high. Initial resistance to monitor is at 0.6537, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of the average would strengthen a bullish case.       

How delayed will (X or Y) data release be?

• To answer this question we could simply count the number of working days between 2013’s scheduled release and the eventual actual postponed release, and apply the same delay to the 2025 releases.
• That methodology could apply to some of the September reports for which data has been collected and calculations take little time to complete. However, other data points will take much longer to compile.
• To give two examples: in 2013, the BLS was due to publish Producer Price data for September on Friday Oct 11. They didn’t release it until Oct 29 (recall the shutdown was over on Oct 17), suggesting that it took a fairly long time to put the prior month’s data together. Conversely for the Census Bureau’s durable goods orders / inventories / shipments advance report for September, it was originally due out on Oct 25 and was published on that day with no delay.
• There are other complications including the major Thanksgiving holiday at the end of the month, which could both curtail survey efforts as well as the time required for agencies to compile the data.
• We are going through the methodologies used for each of the major releases and will provide more detail on how this could delay or postpone releases. For now we will go through the “Tier 1” releases that we have already missed.

Will we see any “doubled up” reports?

• In 2013, we didn’t see any “doubled up” releases from the BLS when the data flow restarted.
• By this we mean, the BLS schedule did not for example make any simultaneous August + September or September + October releases. For example in 2013, August JOLTS was due out on Oct 8, rescheduled to Oct 24, with the September JOLTS postponed from Nov 8 to Nov 22.
• Additionally there were no “doubled up” releases in terms of posting multiple different data sets at the same time: September nonfarm payrolls were released Oct 22, import/export prices Oct 23, and JOLTS Oct 24.
• We take from this experience that the BLS will aim to take its time and not try to release multiple major reports at once.
• The BEA only had 3 major postponed releases in 2013 and none required “doubling up”.
• However, the Census Bureau released multiple months’ worth of indicators at once in some instances: most notable was New Residential Construction data (housing starts/permits/completions) for which September, October, and November data were released simultaneously in December after multiple postponements. We wouldn’t be surprised to see similar this time. 

What major data is likely to be put together relatively quickly?

• The outlook here is mixed.
• Weekly jobless claims: The 2025 shutdown was different from 2013’s from a data perspective because back then, the Department of Labor continued to publish weekly claims data. This time, the DOL has released state-by-state data but analysts have been forced to come up with their own calculations for the national figure. In theory it should be quick and easy for DOL to start back up publishing jobless claims data on Thursday at 0830ET so we wouldn’t be surprised to see such a release – note that it’s the DOL itself and not the BLS that publishes the claims report. That said it’s sure to start getting back on the regular publication schedule by Thursday Nov 20.
• GDP: In 2013, this release was delayed from late October but only to Nov 7; we would expect to see the BEA pull it together by end-November.
• PCE: The PCE price reports of course depend on CPI (and PPI and Import Price) inputs so while a September release is likely to come around the same time as Q3 GDP, we’re not sure we will get an October PCE price report at all (whether the BEA compiles spending/income data without the deflators is another question).
• PPI / Import Prices: The BLS produced the import/export price data without much of a delay in 2013; PPI took longer, with September’s delayed from Oct 11 to 29 and October’s a week (Nov 14 to 21). Import/Export prices are largely composed of administrative trade data from other agencies though there is an economist field survey element too. The PPI data inputs are largely collected via firms’ electronic submissions to the BLS, being asked to report prices as of Tuesday of the week containing the 13th of the month, failing which a BLS economist calls them. As such October’s data may be less reliable than usual though we await the BLS’s verdict.
• Durable goods/inventories: See point above for how quickly the Census Bureau put this data together last time. This could be “doubled up” data for September and October for release in early November.
• Retail sales: As of this Friday we will have missed both the September and October releases. In 2013 Census got these together relatively quickly, with September out 2 weeks after originally due to be released and October delayed a week. It’s plausible that the September data could be out by end-November, with the October data to follow shortly thereafter, though this could be a “double” release.