FOREX: Japanese Yen Extends Post-Election Rally, NOK Firms Following CPI
Feb-10 17:40
- Japanese assets have firmed on Tuesday, bolstered by comments from Finance Minister Katayama, who appears to have successfully calmed the markets on the timing and financing of the sales tax cut. Stabilisation across the JGB curve has facilitated an extension of the Japanese yen rebound, with the USDJPY pullback from yesterday’s post-election high reaching 2.35% at today’s 154.06 low.
- Softer-than-expected US retail sales data appeared to have exacerbated the USDJPY decline, although the dollar has shown much broader stability against other G10 currencies. This dynamic has allowed cross/JPY to fall sharply, with the likes of GBPJPY and AUDJPY leading the declines.
- The sharp downswing for the GBPJPY today has seen spot narrow the gap substantially to the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 210.58. This average is notable given the fact we have not posted a daily close below it since October, and it acted as perfect support on Jan 26.
- The lack of any meaningful bounce for USDJPY following the US data despite broader greenback stability may leave the pair vulnerable to a further acceleration as we approach tomorrow’s US employment report. The next support of note is at 152.10, the Jan 27 low.
- In Norway, the January acceleration in CPI-ATE looks broad-based, with start-of-year price resets in the likes of rents and insurance highlighted. Any scope for payback in February won't be enough to ease Norges Bank concerns around inflation persistence, which leads EURNOK 0.65% lower on the session to fresh lows for 2026, narrowing the gap to support at the 2025 lows of 11.2614.
- Gradual downside momentum for EURCHF has been building in recent sessions. Session lows of 0.9095 represent the first test below 0.9100 since the removal of the peg in 2015.
- All focus turns to tomorrow’s US employment data. The report will need to be assessed holistically rather than focusing on any single number, although the unemployment rate should offer the cleanest single take.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (H6) Recovery Mode
Jan-10 22:45
- RES 3: 97.796 - 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 12 - 15 price swing
- RES 2: 96.780 - High Jun 26 (cont)
- RES 1: 96.700 - High Sep 12
- PRICE: 95.890 @ 16:40 GMT Jan 9
- SUP 1: 95.740 - Low Dec 22
- SUP 2: 95.480 - Low 1st Nov ‘23
- SUP 3: 94.932 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
Prices bounced again Thursday, supported by strength in global bond markets and a smoother inflation picture at the December CPI print. As such, prices edged further away from recent lows. Nonetheless, slower pricing for additional RBA easing - and partial pricing for a return to rate hikes in 2026 - should keep the front-end of the curve under pressure. This keeps prices well below prior resistance at 96.615, the Sep 12 high, and refocuses attention on 95.480 as the next major support.
MNI: MNI TEST 02, Please Ignore
Jan-09 23:36
Test Test TEST
MNI: MNI Test, Please Ignore
Jan-09 23:30
Test, ignore
