THAILAND: Jan Inflation Remains In Band, Q4 GDP Prints Before Next BoT Meeting
Thai CPI for January printed in line with consensus with headline up 0.1pp to 1.3% y/y and core steady at 0.8% y/y, still below Bank of Thailand’s 1-3% corridor. In December BoT projected 2025 inflation of 1.1% with core at 1.0%. The next decision is on February 26 and for now the central bank seems happy to keep rates around neutral despite political pressure for further easing. The January CPI data is unlikely to change this but Q4 GDP is out February 17.
- The Commerce Ministry expects February inflation to be in line with January’s results.
- Higher food prices driven by rice & cereal and fruit & veg offset lower non-food prices. Non-food rose 1.0% y/y down from 1.2% in November as transportation eased to 2.1% from 2.7% helped by a week of free train & bus travel, while other categories were fairly stable. Energy prices moderated to 4.25% y/y from 5.0% due to lower fuel and electricity rates.
- USDTHB is up 0.2% to 33.66 today. After rising sharply on Monday in response to US tariff news, the pair is now little changed on the week.
Thailand CPI y/y%
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GOLD: Holding Within Recent Ranges, Simple 100-day Support Zone Intact
Gold is a touch higher in the first part of Tuesday trade. Bullion was last near $2640, up a touch for the session, but remaining well within Monday's intra-session ranges. Dips sub the simple 100-day MA (last near $2626) have been supported in recent months. This is helping keep a modest uptrend in play, but Nov/Dec highs from 2024, above $2700 are still some distance away.
- Cross asset trends have been mixed so far today, with the aggregate USD indices little changed, while US yields are down a touch. Regional equities are mostly higher outside of a Hong Kong drop.
- Onshore China media has highlighted analysts stating that central bank allocation to gold is likely to continue in 2025 (per CSJ, see this BBG link). This has been a key source of support for bullion in recent years.
EQUITIES: HK/China Shares Lower On US Blacklisting, Tech Firmer Elsewhere
Asia Pac equities are once again mixed. Hong Kong and to a lesser extent China markets, have struggled amid fresh US additions to the Blacklist (for companies that have alleged links to the China military). These have included Tencent and CATL, a battery maker. The HSI is off around 2.0% at this stage, while the CSI and Shanghai Composite indices are down more modestly. Trends are more positive elsewhere in the region, aided by tech trends.
- Nvidia's CEO has been in Las Vegas and announced new computer graphics processors, but broader Nasdaq futures sit little changed, last around flat after a strong cash trading start to the week in Monday US trade.
- Tech sensitive plays in terms of South Korea and Taiwan are firmer but away from best levels. The Taiex still up around 1.0%, the Kospi near 0.65%. Investors may have been hoping for more out of the Nvidia presentation.
- Yesterday saw very strong inflows into local Taiwan stocks, in excess of $1.5bn amid broader tech optimism, as Microsoft unveiled plans for AI data centers and Foxconn posted stronger Q4 results.
- Japan markets are performing better today, up +1% for the Topix, which the Nikkei is around 2% higher. Weaker yen levels, along with positive tech spill over are likely aiding sentiment.
- Elsewhere, aggregate shifts are more modest, Australia's ASX 200 up around 0.30%, but Indonesia and Philippine markets track slightly lower.
OIL: Crude Down Slightly, December OPEC Output Lower
Oil prices continue to hold onto most of last week’s gains and are only down slightly today. They have declined moderately this week following technical indicators suggesting last week’s rally was overdone. WTI is 0.2% lower at $73.42/bbl, close to the intraday high after a low of $73.18. Brent is down 0.2% to $76.18/bbl, also close to today’s peak following a brief move below $76.00. The USD is flat.
- Concerns over excess supply in 2025 persist with both the production and consumption outlooks uncertain. Bank of America has restated that new production from non-OPEC countries is likely to exceed global demand growth. Later today industry-based data on US inventories is released.
- A Bloomberg survey showed OPEC output declining 120kbd in December driven by UAE with moderate increases in Libya and Nigeria offset by cuts in Iran and Kuwait.
- Later the Fed’s Barkin speaks and US November trade, JOLTS job openings, December services ISM and preliminary December euro area CPI and November unemployment rate are released.
