BONDS: J.P.Morgan Survey: European Investors Still Hold Above Average EGB Duration Exposure

May-18 07:35

J.P.Morgan have released their latest survey covering European real-money fixed income investors, with the following key takeaways outlined:

  • Multi-currency: European real money investors in EGBs moderately decreased their duration exposure (from +0.04 to +0.03 years). This level is higher than the average observed since January 2022 (-0.04 years since the 5 Jan 2022).
  • Single-currency European real money investors in EGBs continued to increase their long duration (from +0.29 to +0.32 years). This represents the highest level observed since late April 2022 (+0.33 years on 27 Apr 2022).
  • Investors slightly increased their intra-EMU widening exposure since last survey, remaining very close to neutral (from 3% to 4% net short). This is in line with the average observed since early January 2022.
  • European multi-currency investors maintained their duration exposure in USD (levelling at +0.07 years).
  • In the UK, single-currency investors in GBP maintained their long duration exposure (levelling at +0.34 years). This level is still considerably larger than the average observed since early 2021 (-0.08 years since the 6 Jan 2021).
  • Note that all duration deviations are relative to the relevant benchmark and given in years.

Historical bullets

CHINA-EU: EU Comm. Outlines China Views As Beijing Blasts G7 Communique

Apr-18 07:27

(MNI) London - Leaders of the European Commission are outlining their views on EU-China relations presently, delivering statements to the plenary session of the European Parliament in Strasbourg. High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell has just finished and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen now speaking, the latter after travelling to China last week. Link to livestream: https://audiovisual.ec.europa.eu/en/ebs/live/2

  • Borrell: "Economic security should have an impact on foreign policy." VdL: "In the last decades China has become an economic powerhouse and a key global player. It is now reducing its dependency on the world while increasing the world’s dependency on itself. We need to develop a new approach.[...] De-risking but not decoupling.'
  • There remain major differences within the EU, and its institutions, on what stance to be taken on China. The aim of some (notably French Pres. Emmanuel Macron) to enhance EU 'strategic autonomy' on foreign/security policy remains majorly hindered not only by reliance on US defence spending but also major differences in views on China from member states.
  • Separately, the Chinese Foreign Ministry has criticised the communique from the G7 foreign ministers' meeting that has recently concluded in Japan. According to wires spox states that, 'The meeting grossly interfered in China's internal affairs, maliciously smeared and discredited China [...] It was full of arrogace, prejudice against China; we have made a strong demarche to the host Japan.'

EGB SYNDICATION: Austria 6y Green / 30y conventional

Apr-18 07:20
  • Maturity: 23 May 2029 (Green)
    • Size: E3bln WNG
    • Guidance: MS-15bp area
    • ISIN: AT0000A33SH3
  • Maturity: 20 October 2053 (Conventional)
    • Size: E2bln (WNG)
    • Guidance: MS+57bp area
    • ISIN: AT0000A33SK7
  • For both:
    • Settlement: 25 April 2023 (T+5)
    • Bookrunners.. BARC (B&D/DM) / BofA / DB / ERSTE / JPM / MS
    • Timing: Books open, today's business

From market source

BONDS: A 22 ticks gap for Gilt

Apr-18 07:09
  • A 22 ticks gap lower open for Gilt, push Bund to yesterday's low, all on the back of the decent jump in UK earnings, but Investors will quickly turn their attention to the UK CPI tomorrow.
  • Gilt now trades at its lowest level since the 10th March and support will be at the 101.13/100.60 gap.
  • Resistance will initially be at the opening gap, from 101.46 up to 101.68

Chart source: MNI/Bloomberg