POWER: Italy December Power Tracks Weekly Gains
The Italian December power base-load contract is tracking a weekly increase of just under 2% as of Thursday’s close amid gains in EU gas prices. Wind output in Italy is forecast to be low next week.
- Italy Base Power DEC 25 closed down 0.8% at 113.45 EUR/MWh on 6 Nov
- Italy Power Cal 26 closed down 0.7% at 104.36 EUR/MWh on 6 Nov
- TTF Gas DEC 25 up 0.1% at 31.595 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 up 0.5% at 80.61 EUR/MT
- TTF front month is holding steady on the day and within the €31/MWh to €32.9/MWh range since Oct. 9 with mild weather limiting early season heating demand.
- The latest two-week ECMWF weather forecast for Rome suggests mean temperatures will remain slightly below normal until early-next week before rising above the average.
- Mean temperatures in Rome are forecast at 13.9C on Saturday and at 13.8C on Sunday, from 14.4C on Friday and below the seasonal average.
- The PUN index increased to €116.29/MWh for Friday’s delivery, from €115.42/MWh for Thursday’s delivery.
- Wind output in Italy is forecast at 1.11GW during base load on Saturday and at 1.38GW on Sunday, from 919MW on Friday, according to SpotRenewables.
- Italian wind output is forecast at 381MW to 1.91GW during base load on 8-16 November.
- Residual load in Italy is forecast at 23.77GWh/h on Saturday and at 20.46GWh/h on Sunday, from 29.23GWh/h on Friday, Reuters data showed.
- Power demand in Italy is forecast at 28.45GWh/h on Saturday and at 24.56GWh/h on Sunday, from 33.03GWh/h on Friday, Reuters data showed.
- Italian residential/commercial gas demand is forecast at 83.1mcm/d on Saturday and at 87.3mcm/d on Sunday, from 91.7mcm/d on Friday, Bloomberg data showed.
- Italy’s hydro balance forecast has been revised down to end at -2.01TWh on 21 November, from -1.84TWh previously, Bloomberg data showed.
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FRANCE: Suspension Of Pension Reform Would Risk Intra-Coalition Rancour
Caretaker Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu, speaking outside Matignon after the first day of meetings with various political parties in an effort to break through the country's political paralysis, claims that "talks so far are showing a willingness to get this budget through by year-end". Lecornu will present his findings to President Emmanuel Macron later this evening. Adds, "Reducing the deficit is key for France's credibility."
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- Education Minister and former PM Elisabeth Borne's raising of the prospect of suspending the 2023 pension reform may draw PS support for a budget, but risks rancour with the right of the governing coalition. Arnaud Pericard, spokesperson for the centre-right Horizons, said to FranceInfo, "I understand that it is being put forward, but it is not a good idea," with the conservative Les Republicans (LR) also likely to object. Should Horizons and LR vote down (rather than abstain) on any repeal, their votes would outweigh those of the PS.
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