IRAN: *IRAN'S TASNIM: US HAS SENT A NEW TEXT TO IRAN

• BOC NAMES MARC-ANDRE GOSSELIN AND NICOLAS VINCENT DEPUTY GOVS

• RES 4: 0.8797 High Dec 17
• RES 3: 0.8789 High Feb 27 and key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8747 76.4% retracement of the Feb 27 - Mar 16 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8742 High Mar 31 and Apr 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.8703 @ 15:08 BST Apr 20
• SUP 1: 0.8694/85 50-day EMA / Low Apr 14  
• SUP 2: 0.8637/10 Low Mar 26 / 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8597 Low Aug 14
• SUP 4: 0.8578 Low Jul 2 ‘25 

Despite the latest pullback, a bull cycle in EURGBP remains intact. Price action since early April still appears to be a flag formation. If correct, this is a bullish continuation pattern and reinforces current short-term conditions. Scope is seen for a climb towards 0.8747 next, the 76.4% retracement of the Feb - Mar bear leg. Note that the 50-day EMA, at 0.8694, has been pierced. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement.  

European yields rose Monday as last week's optimism over a prolonged peace in the Middle East was thrown back into some question.

• As Tuesday's (and apparently moved to Wednesday by Pres Trump)'s ceasefire approaches, energy prices jumped on the re-open after weekend skirmishes around - and blockades of - the Strait of Hormuz and re-escalatory rhetoric between Iran and the US.
• This dragged down EGBs and Gilts. But risk appetite steadied out over the course of the session as reports and officials suggested that the US and Iran would get back to the negotiating table this week, stabilizing equities and energy prices and allowing yields to finish off their highs.
• After the cash close, Bund futures edged up after Lagarde said that the ECB needs more data before drawing policy conclusions, implying some continued pushback against speculation over an April hike.
• Gilts underperformed Bunds, with the UK curve bear steepening and Germany's bear flattening.
• Periphery/semi-core EGB spreads widened modestly in a partial reversal of the narrowing made late last week.
• It's a busy week for UK data in particular, with labour market (Tue) and inflation (Wed) data (preview here). We think that the biggest release of the upcoming week will
  be the DMP survey on Friday.
• In addition, we get ZEW Tuesday and IFO Friday, and April flash PMIs Europe-wide on Thursday.

Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany

• Germany: The 2-Yr yield is up 5.1bps at 2.459%, 5-Yr is up 2.5bps at 2.636%, 10-Yr is up 2bps at 2.98%, and 30-Yr is up 0.4bps at 3.545%.
• UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 6.3bps at 4.185%, 5-Yr is up 6.9bps at 4.317%, 10-Yr is up 7.2bps at 4.834%, and 30-Yr is up 7.6bps at 5.569%.
• Italian BTP spread up 2.4bps at 74.2bps / French OAT up 1.6bps at 63bps