IRAN: Iran FM Spokesperson Says Iran Needs to Re-Assess Talks with US

Greene: "Right now, the economy is somewhere in between [2011 and 2022 starting points]. So we will get some second round effects. It's impossible to calibrate them exactly in advance. The trick for us also is that, you know, we kind of know how to measure direct and indirect effects. We can do that pretty easily. The second round effects are pretty difficult to measure. But of course, if we wait until we have real, concrete evidence of them, we're too late in responding. So we're going to have to make a judgement, a proactive judgement, in advance, about the size of the second round effects that we're going to want to lean against so that we can lean against them in time."

This is very much in line with her individual paragraph in the 30 April decision.

Of note:

USDCAD 5bn at 1.3650/1.3660 (could act as magnet).

EURUSD 4.74bn at 1.1750/1.1800.

EURUSD 2.71bn at 1.1745/1.1750 (tue).

USDJPY 1.46bn at 157.00 (wed).

AUDUSD 1.69bn at 0.7350 (thu).

• EURUSD: 1.1725 (964mln), 1.1750 (2.1bn), 1.1755 (428mln), 1.1760 (581mln), 1.1770 (436mln), 1.1800 (929mln).
• GBPUSD: 1.3670 (470mln).
• USDJPY: 157.00 (353mln), 157.50 (570mln), 158.00 (546mln).
• USDCAD: 1.3650 (3.92bn), 1.3660 (1.08bn).
• AUDUSD: 0.7200 (690mln), 0.7300 (642mln).
• AUDNZD: 1.2150 (674mln).
• USDCNY: 6.9450 (900mln).

PM Sir Keir Starmer is due to deliver a party political speech at around 10:00BST (05:00ET, 11:00CET) as he looks to revive his flagging premiership following poor election results for his centre-left Labour party across England, Scotland, and Wales last week. In the speech, Sir Keir is expected to say he will work "to meet the challenges that our country faces, incremental change won't cut it", while adding his gov't "will be defined by rebuilding our relationship" with the EU. 

• A number of leadership challengers, including former Deputy PM Angela Rayner, Health Secretary Wes Streeting, and Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham, are believed to be considering launching formal efforts to remove the PM or at least throw their hat into the ring if Starmer's gov't collapses.
• Over the weekend, MP for Hornsey and Friern Barnet, Catherine West, announced that she believed Starmer should stand down, and that if his speech today did not convince her otherwise, she would begin the process of seeking the 80 signatures from Labour MPs required to launch her own leadership challenge.
• West's campaign is not viewed as a serious one, but instead as a 'stalking horse' challenge, which would test the waters of whether there is requisite support among Labour MPs for a more central political figure to oust Starmer formally. Around 40 Labour MPs have now called for Sir Keir to announce a date to stand down.