IRAN: *IRAN CLAIMS DRONE SHOT DOWN ON QESHM ISLAND: TASNIM - BBG

Jerome Powell's final press conference as Fed Chair gets underway:

• "We see the current stance of monetary policy as appropriate to promote progress toward our maximum employment and 2% inflation goals. Developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook, and we will remain attentive to risks to both sides of our dual mandate."
• Powell describes economic activity as expanding at a "brisk pace", with the unemployment rate having "changed little in recent months" with job gains remaining "low" in part reflecting labor supply as well as demand. "Inflation has moved up recently and is elevated relative to our 2% longer run goal estimates", "boosted by the significant rise in global oil prices that have resulted from the conflict in the Middle East" with the "relatively high rate" of core PCE "largely reflects the effects of tariffs on prices in the goods sector". However, "Most measures of longer term expectations remain consistent with our 2% inflation goal. "

• Ahead of Powell taking to the podium, SOFR futures have further extended the day’s losses, with the SFRM7 -0.03 post-decision for -0.135 on the day.
• Fed Funds implied rates have climbed 3bp for the Dec 2026 (showing 2bp of cumulative hikes) and 4bp for the Jun 2027 (for 10bp of cumulative hikes).

• RES 4: 161.95 High Jul 3 ‘24 and a major resistance
• RES 3: 161.46 1.618 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb  - 12 price swing
• RES 2: 160.79 1.500 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb  - 12 price swing
• RES 1: 160.32/160.46 High Apr 29 / High Mar 30 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 160.21 @ 17:29 BST Apr 29
• SUP 1: 158.44/157.59 50-day EMA / Low Apr 17
• SUP 2: 157.23 100-DMA 
• SUP 3: 156.46 Low Mar 5 
• SUP 4: 155.85 Low Mar 2 

The primary trend condition in USDJPY remains bullish. This is highlighted by moving average studies that are in a bull-mode position. Support around the 50-day EMA continues to remain intact - currently at 158.44. A clear break of the average is required to signal a short-term reversal. Attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger at 160.46, the Mar 30 high. Clearance of it would resume the uptrend and open 160.79, a Fibonacci projection.