US TECHNOLOGY: Intel: 3Q25 Results
Credit positive - 18A progress is in line with expectations with the panther lake sku launch still expected by year end. Execution risks remain high but we favorably view the CEO's prioritization of debt paydown, with $4.3B paid down this quarter and $2.5B expected to be paid down in 2026, giving the company enhanced flexibility.
• Revenue was ahead of street consensus at $13.65B ($13.15B est.), and was +3% YoY.
• Adj. gross margins were ahead of estimates at 40% (36.1% est.) driven by a higher mix of older generation products.
• EBITDA increased by 390% YoY and margins increased by 25ppts to 32%.
• FCF was $121M ($900M adj. FCF) compared to -$2.9B in the prior year quarter.
• Gross and net leverage ended the quarter at 3.3x and 1.1x, down by 1.2x sequentially.
• 4Q25 revenue guidance (adjusted for $400-$500M in Altera revenue) was ahead of street estimates at $13.3B ($13.42B est.).
• The company guided 4Q25 adj. gross margins at 36.5% and reiterated full year capex of $18B.
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JPY: USD/JPY - No Direction, In The Middle Of The Range
The overnight range was 147.46 - 147.93, Asia is currently trading around 147.60. USD/JPY stalled above 148.00 and continues to chop around sideways without really going anywhere. The USD traded sideways with little clear direction overnight. The price is still in the middle of its recent 146-149 range, and we need a convincing break on either side to see some clearer direction again. Neither the FOMC nor the BOJ were able to provide any clarity, the market will start turning its focus towards payrolls which seems a lifetime away.
- MNI JAPAN: LDP Candidates Support New Parties In Coalition, No Signal Of Which Ones. Speaking at a joint press conference earlier today, all five candidates for the presidency of the governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) voiced their support for the prospect of expanding the governing coalition beyond the LDP and its long-term partner, the centrist social-conservative Komeito party.
- Bloomberg - “Japan’s Takaichi Says More Bond Issuance May Become Unavoidable. Japan will need to rely on excess tax revenue to fight back against rising consumer prices, but issuing government bonds “could become unavoidable if the situation calls for it,” said Sanae Takaichi, a frontrunner in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s leadership race.”
- Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 145.00($1.52b), 148.50($728m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 145.00($1.09b Sept 26), 150.00($922m Sept 25) - BBG.
- CFTC data shows last week asset managers reduced their JPY longs slightly +71162( Last +87239), leveraged funds again used the dip to add to their short position believing the support will continue to hold -58811(Last -49951).
- Data/Event : S&P Global Japan PMI’s, Machine Tool Orders YoY
Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot 2H Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
ASIA: Government Bond Issuance Today
- Vietnam To Sell VND 9.0Tln 2035 Bonds; (TD2535028)
- Vietnam To Sell VND 3.0Tln 2040 Bonds; (TD2540037)
- Vietnam To Sell VND 1.0Tln 2030 Bonds; (TD2530010)
- Vietnam To Sell VND 0.5Tln 2055 Bonds; (TD2555052)
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 367D SUVBI Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 31D SUVBI Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 94D SUVBI Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 181D SUVBI Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 273D SUVBI Bills
- India to Sell INR60bn 182-Day Bills
- India to Sell INR100bn 91-Day Bills
- India to Sell INR50bn 364-Day Bills
ASIA: Coming Up in Asia
| 0300GMT | 1000HKT | 1200AEDT | South Korea Retail Sales YoY AUGUST |
| 0300GMT | 1000HKT | 1200AEDT | South Korea Department Store Sales YoY AUGUST |
| 0300GMT | 1000HKT | 1200AEDT | South Korea Discount Store Sales YoY AUGUST |
| 0430GMT | 1130HKT | 1330AEDT | Thailand Customs Exports YoY AUGUST |
| 0430GMT | 1130HKT | 1330AEDT | Thailand Customs Imports YoY AUGUST |
| 0430GMT | 1130HKT | 1330AEDT | Thailand Customs Trade Balance AUGUST |
| 0900GMT | 1600HKT | 1800AEDT | Taiwan Industrial Production YoY |
source: Bloomberg Finance LP / MNI
