UK DATA: Inflation Data Due at 7:00GMT

The EU, Slovakia, Finland, Spain and France will all look to come to the market this week. We pencil in issuance of E28.4bln for the week, up from E13.0bln last week.

See the full document here for a look ahead to the next two weeks of issuance and a recap of last week.

• The EU will look to hold a syndication this week – likely its last of 2025.
• Slovakia will kick off auction issuance for the week tomorrow with its last auction of the year (ARDAL has already confirmed that the December reserve auction will not take place). On offer will be the 3.00% Feb-28 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000024683), the 0.375% Apr-36 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000018958), the 4.00% Feb-43 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000022547) and the 2.00% Oct-47 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4120013400).
  • We have not seen a Slovak auction with two SlovGBs on offer with residual maturities in excess of 15 years for at least seven years.
• Finland will also look to hold its last conventional auction of 2025 tomorrow. As expected the 10-year on-the-run 3.00% Sep-35 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000587415) will be one of two RFGBs on offer with the on-the-run 30-year 2.95% Apr-55 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000566294)

• RES 4: 0.8893 2.000 proj of the Sep 15 - 25 - Oct 8 price swing    
• RES 3: 0.8875 High Apr 25 
• RES 2: 0.8868 61.8% retracement of the 2022 - 2024 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8865 High Nov 14
• PRICE: 0.8827 @ 06:41 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: 0.8777 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 0.8763 Low Nov 3
• SUP 3: 0.8734 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.8706 Low Oct 24 and a key support  

The trend condition in EURGBP remains bullish and fresh cycle highs last week reinforce current conditions. The move higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 0.8868 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial key short-term support to watch lies at  0.8777, the 20-day EMA. A break would highlight the start of a corrective phase.

Germany, the Netherlands, France, the ESM, Portugal and the EU are due to sell bills this week. We expect issuance to be E19.3bln in first round operations, down from E28.7bln last week.

• This morning, Germany will look to sell E3bln of the new 12-month Nov 18, 2026 Bubill.
• Also this morning, the Netherlands will look to issue E1.0-2.0bln of the 2.5-month Jan 29, 2026 DTC and E1.0-2.0bln of the 5.5-month Apr 29, 2026 DTC.
• This afternoon, France  will look to come to the market with up to a combined E7.5bln of 13/24/28/50-week BTFs: E2.8-3.2bln of the 13-week Feb 18, 2026 BTF, E0.0-0.4bln of the 24-week May 6, 2026 BTF, E1.5-1.9bln of the new 28-week Jun 3, 2026 BTF and E1.6-2.0bln of the 50-week Nov 4, 2026 BTF.
• Tomorrow, the ESM will look to sell up to E1.1bln of the new 6-month May 21, 2025 bills.
• On Wednesday morning, Portugal  will look to issue a combined E1.00-1.25bln of the 6-month May 22, 2026 BT and the new 12-month Nov 20, 2026 BT.
• Finally on Wednesday, the EU will look to come to the market with up to E1.0bln of the 3-month Feb 6, 2026 EU-bill, up to E1.0bln of the 6-month May 8, 2026 EU-bill and up to E1.0bln of the 12-month Nov 6, 2026 EU-bill.