US: Inflation And Expectations Feature In Next Week's Calendar

Next week’s US macro calendar is headlined by CPI (Wed) and PPI (Thu) reports for May, setting the stage for the FOMC meeting the following week.

• High inventories after tariff front-running could spare larger price increases until the summer but we’ll nevertheless watch core goods ex used cars after April saw its strongest monthly inflation since Mar 2023.
• Tourism/travel-related components have however been weak recently, interesting considering anecdotal softness in travel to the US. Early days of the Bloomberg survey see core CPI inflation at 0.3% M/M after 0.24% M/M in April.
• That didn’t translate into core PCE inflation last month, at 0.12% M/M, although some tentatively look for that to switch this month in part on strength in portfolio management and investment advice prices after April’s weakness. Nomura for example eye core CPI at 0.255% M/M but core PCE at 0.367% M/M. The PPI report will then help narrow down the range of core PCE estimates.
• On the inflation expectations front, we also get the UMichigan prelim Jun survey and the NY Fed's survey of consumer expectations.