OIL: India State Refiners Keep Iraq Term Supply Largely Unchanged in 2026
Nov-19 08:39
Most of India’s state-run refiners have kept long-term oil supply from Iraq steady for 2026, according to Bloomberg sources.
- Indian Oil term supply is unchanged from this year with 400kb/d agreed while Bharat Petroleum Corp. is also unchanged with an agreement to lift 70kb/d.
- Hindustan Petroleum increased volumes from 100kbd this year to 150kb/d for 2026, with a new 180kb/d refinery in Rajasthan set to be commissioned.
- Iraq’s SOMO said it had limited scope to offer more of the Basrah Heavy grade under term supplies.
- Indian buyers have been scaling back buying of Russian crudes for Dec delivery onwards and seeking alternative supplies due to US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil starting Nov. 21.
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BUNDS: Cash Basis Trade
Oct-20 08:25
Bund Basis trade, suggest Cash seller:
- RXZ5 7k at 129.83.
GILTS: Steady Open; Trend In 10-year Yields Still To The Upside
Oct-20 08:22
A fairly steady open for Gilts ahead of an important week for UK data. Futures are -4 ticks at 92.42. A short-term bull cycle in futures remains intact though, with initial resistance at Friday’s high of 93.17.
- Yields are up to 1bp higher across the curve. 10-year yields are currently 4.536%, down from this month’s 4.758% high. Despite this month’s fall in yields, the medium-term trend for the 10-year is still to the upside. Initial support is the April 7 low at 4.363%, which shields trendline support drawn from the November 2022 low at 4.232% today.
- See MNI’s Tech Trend Monitor for more, which also includes charts on the 30-year Gilt yield.
- Fiscal policy remains a key focus for the Gilt market ahead of the Nov 26th budget. The main fiscal headlines from the weekend have suggested that VAT may be removed from energy bills.
- September public sector finance data is due on Tuesday. After correcting for a VAT error in last month’s release, PSNB is currently tracking GBP9.4bln below the OBR’s forecast year-to-date.
- This release, alongside Wednesday’s CPI report (important for the near-term BOE outlook) will feed into the OBR’s Round 3 forecast on October 31 ( see here for more).
Figure 1: 10-year Gilt Yields (Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P)
FOREX: FX OPTION EXPIRY
Oct-20 08:14
Of note:
USDJPY ~2bn at 150.00/150.05.
EURUSD ~1bn at 1.1700 (tue).
NZDUSD 1.1bn at 0.5700 (wed).
AUDUSD 1.49bn at 0.6450 (fri).
- EURUSD: 1.1645 (665mln), 1.1650 (331mln), 1.1670 (211mln), 1.1700 (346mln), 1.1705 (206mln), 1.1715 (740mln).
- USDJPY: 150.00 (1.28bn), 150.05 (823mln), 150.25 (600mln), 150.50 (355mln), 151.00 (779mln), 151.70 (1.1bn).
- USDCAD: 1.4000 (718mln).
- AUDUSD: 0.6500 (340mln).
- AUDNZD: 1.1325 (400mln).
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