OIL: India Crude Imports Rose in October
Nov-20 12:20
India’s crude oil imports in October rose by 5.6% year on year to 21.1m tons, the highest since May, and compared to 20.35m tons in September, according to provisional data from the oil ministry’s Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell.
- Total oil exports were up 1.2% year on year to 5.115m tons but 17.3% lower than in September.
- Diesel exports rose by 15.2% year on year to 2.707m tons but down 12.8% on the month.
- Gasoline exports rose 22.8% on the year to 1.372m tons but down 12.5% from last month.
- Data released earlier this month showed fuel consumption in India decreased 0.4% on the year in October although 7.7% higher than September at 20.17m tons.
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OPTIONS: G10 FX Vol Sinking, But Conditions for a Bounce May Be Forming
Oct-21 12:18
- Implied vols trade very heavy across G10 FX, however there are potential hotspots for activity into year-end that could prompt a spell of vol reversal. The premium for 2m over 1m GBP vols signals latent event risk around the November 26th UK Budget, while trade headline risk may mean AUD vols are undervalued.
- As has been the case across the past few weeks, implied vols remains very heavy - particularly in the front-end of the curve. The drivers here are largely low (and falling) realized vols as well as soft option demand. DTCC data shows just ~$70bln notional of currency options traded yesterday. Outside of US market holidays, this marks the second-lowest session of options trade of the past three months.
- EUR realised vols continue to decline: 1m today prints 5.8 points, the lowest in twelve months and easily the lowest level since the November Presidential election. The (relatively) smooth transition to a new cabinet and pension reforms in France will be partially responsible, but it's the solid pricing for ECB and Fed rates that will be largely responsible for the very low premiums for any contracts covering the end of 2025.
- The effect is not contained to EUR markets, however, as the factoring-out of a BoJ hike in October (and, to a lesser extent, in December) prompts front-end implied to look through Takaichi's appointment and remain subdued.
- This leaves AUDUSD vols trading very heavy into next week's APEC Summit and the meeting at which Trump-Xi could seal progress toward a trade deal. The sensitivity of AUD 1m implied to Trump's threat of additional China tariffs a few weeks ago shows disappointment here could stir renewed gamma demand, leading to a vol recovery.
EGB SYNDICATION: 3.25% Jan-34 ESTONI tap: Spread set
Oct-21 12:03
- Spread set at MS + 72bps (guidance weas MS + 80bps area then revised to MS + 75bps area)
- Tap Size: E500bln (WNG)
- Books in excess of E1.55bln (inc E120mln JLM interest)
- Settlement: 28 October 2025 (T+5)
- Joint Leads: Erste Group, J.P. Morgan (B&D) and Societe Generale
- Timing: Books to close at 13:30BST / 14:30CET
From market source
STIR: Repo Reference Rates
Oct-21 12:01
- Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.16% (-0.02), volume: $2.945T
- Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.12% (-0.04), volume: $1.164T
- Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TCR): 4.12% (-0.04), volume: $1.135T
- (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)
