STIR: Implied Probability Of April Hike Falls On Lagarde Comments
Mar-25 08:52
The ECB-dated OIS implied probability of an April ECB hike has fallen to 60% since these headlines f...
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FOREX: FX OPTION EXPIRY
Feb-23 08:50
Of note:
EURUSD 2.25bn at 1.1800/1.1850.
GBPUSD 1.09bn at 1.3500 (tue).
EURUSD 2.84bn at 1.1800 (wed).
USDJPY 1.19bn at 155.00 (wed).
USDCAD 1.96bn at 0.7100 (wed).
EURUSD 1.38bn at 1.1800 (thu).
USDCAD 1.69bn at 1.3700 (thu).
EURUSD 1.13bn at 1.1800 (fri).
USDJPY 1.53bn at 155.00 (fri).
- EURUSD: 1.1780 (500mln), 1.1800 (704mln), 1.1820 (400mn), 1.1845 (828mln), 1.1850 (321mln).
- USDJPY: 155.00 (787mln).
- AUDUSD: 0.7075 (502mln).
GILTS: Light Flattening To Start
Feb-23 08:41
Gilts initially rally at the open, but the move away from Asia-Pac highs in Tsys & Bunds provides some counter.
- Feedthrough from the U.S. tariff situation continues to dominate, with U.S. & European equity futures lower.
- Gilt futures +2 at 92.48 vs. highs of 92.61.
- Friday’s high has been pierced, next resistance of note located at the Jan 14 high/key resistance (92.95). The bull cycle in the contract remains intact. Bears need to force a move back below the 20-day EMA (91.58) to start countering the theme.
- A reminder that the March contract goes first notice on Thursday, with roll activity accounting for over 60% of activity in that contract through early trade today.
- Yields little changed to 1bp lower, curve flatter.
- BoE’s Taylor will take part in a fireside chat at Deutsche Bank this morning (11:00 London). It is well known his views are on the dovish side and he has also referenced 3% as his neutral estimate, most recently in the February Minutes, so this is unlikely to be market moving.
- GBP STIRs little changed vs. pre-gilt open levels, showing ~49bp of easing through year-end.
- This afternoon will see the BoE sell GBP800mln of short bucket maturity gilts from its APF holdings.
BONDS: US Treasuries and Gilt Roll Pace (updated)
Feb-23 08:19
Over 60% of the front Month Volume in Tnotes and Gilt are spread related, First Notice for Gilt is the 26th and 27th for US Treasuries. Expect for these to be fully active at the start of the Week.
PACE:
- WNA: 22% (below pace).
- USA: 21% (below pace).
- UXY: 22% (below pace).
- TYA: 25% (below pace).
- FVA: 32% (above pace).
- TUA: 30% (above pace).
- Gilt: 24% (as of Thursday).
