GERMANY: IFO Sees US Tariffs To "Only Slightly Reduce German Exports"
IFO sees "new reciprocal US tariffs [to] reduce German exports to the United States by less than three percent. The IFO Institute has simulated these reciprocal tariffs, in other words, if the US were to increase tariffs on products by the amount levied by its trading partners on corresponding US products. If the EU were to take no countermeasures, German exports would fall by 2.4 percent."
- "However, the impact of reciprocal tariffs would be significantly lower for Germany [relative to] a blanket US tariffs increase of 20 percent [...] because the gap in tariffs between the US and the EU is relatively small at 0.5 percent", IFO adds. Full report here: https://www.cesifo.org/en/publications/2025/working-paper/us-reciprocal-tariffs-and-their-erosion-global-trade-rules
- German exports to the US have seen some volatility in recent months but appear to have not exhibited a clear directional trend since mid-2022 in real terms.
- IFO export expectations have risen most recently, reaching their highest level since early 2024 but remain in negative territory at -1.6 point (up from -4.7 in February). IFO flagged that sentiment in the automotive industry has "turned around" recently although the outlook there remains cautious. "The outlook for the metal sector is still pessimistic, but no longer as pronounced as in previous months. The same applies to clothing manufacturers", they added.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
EURJPY TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 161.35 61.8% retracement of the Dec 30 - Feb 10 bear leg
- RES 3: 161.19 High Feb 13
- RES 2: 159.65 50-day EMA and key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 157.97 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 156.53 @ 07:34 GMT Mar 3
- SUP 1: 154.80 Low Feb 28
- SUP 2: 154.42 Low Aug 5 ‘24 and key medium-term support
- SUP 3: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
- SUP 4: 152.72 1.00 proj of the Jan 24 - Feb 10 - 13 price swing
A bearish theme in EURJPY remains present and Friday’s print below support at 155.61, the Feb 10 low, reinforces this theme. A resumption of the bear leg and a clear breach of the support would expose the key medium-term handle at 154.42, the Aug 5 ‘24 low. Clearance of this level would highlight an important technical break. Initial firm resistance to watch is 157.97, the 20-day EMA. Key resistance is 159.65, the 50-day EMA.
USD: The Dollar trades in the red against G10s
- The Dollar is on the back foot going into the European session despite the push higher in Yields, the SEK is the best early performer with the Scandie trading in the green across G10s, albeit still within past ranges.
- The SEK is testing new early intraday high versus the NOK, EUR and USD.
- While most will look at Friday's low of 10.7043 as initial support, better is seen towards 10.6000 in USDSEK.
- The Swedish Mfg PMI was better than last, but not a known market mover.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H5) Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 6200.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 6178.75 High Dec 6 ‘24 and key resistance
- RES 2: 6035.99/6166.50 50-day EMA / High Jan 19
- RES 1: 5984.50 Intraday high
- PRICE: 5973.75 @ 07:20 GMT Mar 3
- SUP 1: 5848.00 Low Feb 28
- SUP 2: 5809.00 Low Jan 13 and a reversal trigger
- SUP 3: 5784.00 Low Nov 4 ’24
- SUP 4: 5730.00 Low Sep 18 ‘24
Recent weakness in the S&P E-Minis contract has resulted in a breach of a number of important supports; 6014.00, the Feb 10 low, and 5935.50, the Feb 3 low. The sharp move down signals scope for a deeper retracement and has exposed the next key support at 5809.00, the Jan 13 low. Clearance of this level would highlight a stronger reversal. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is 6038.96, the 50-day EMA.
