HYBRIDS: Hybrid Movers (SESGFP): SES loss of Equity Credit
(SESGFP; Hyb Ba3/NR/BB+ neg)
• Moody's cuts Sr Unsecured rating to Non-IG Ba1; Hybrids to Ba3
• Blames poor operational performance.
• Hybrids will no longer receive Equity Credit as the Senior Rating is sub-IG.
• Adjustment raises Moody's Gross Debt/EBITDA by ~0.5x
• Adj D/EBITDA to rise to 4.8x before falling to 4.0x in 2027.
• Perps up to 1.3pts lower
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USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Theme
- RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.4140/66 High Nov 5 / Channel top drawn from Jul 23 low
- RES 1: 1.4062 Intraday high
- PRICE: 1.4040 @ 08:18 GMT Nov 18
- SUP 1: 1.3985 Low Nov 13
- SUP 2: 1.3968 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3893 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low
- SUP 4: 1.3888 Low Oct 29 and a key support
The short-term outlook in USDCAD is bearish. Price action is trading inside a bull channel drawn from the Jul 23 low. The top of the channel - currently at 1.4170 - provided a firm resistance on Nov 11. The subsequent move down highlights scope for a bear extension towards the base of the channel at 1.3893. Initial key support to watch is 1.3968, the 50-day EMA. For bulls, a break of the channel top would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
EU-BOND SYNDICATION: 2.50% Oct-30 EU-bond tap
- Guidance: MS + 15bps area
- Tap Size: E5bln (WNG) (MNI expected E5-6bln)
- Settlement: 25 Nov 2025 (T+5)
- Maturity: 14 October 2030
- ISIN: EU000A4EG021 (immediately fungible)
- JLMs: GSBE SE / HSBC / J.P. Morgan (DM/B&D) / Natixis / UBS
- Timing: Books open, today’s business
AUDUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 0.6660 High Sep 18
- RES 3: 0.6644 76.4% retracement of the Sep-Oct bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6618 High Oct 29 and a key near-term resistance
- RES 1: 0.6525/6580 20-day EMA / High Nov 13
- PRICE: 0.6492 @ 08:05 GMT Nov 18
- SUP 1: 0.6459 Low Nov 5
- SUP 2: 0.6440 Low Oct 14 and key support
- SUP 3: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
A sharp move down this week so far, in AUDUSD, highlights a clear bear threat. This also reinforces a short-term bearish signal on Nov 13 - a shooting star (inverted hammer) candle formation. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term pivot resistance has been defined at 0.6580, the Nov 13 high. A continued sell-off would expose 0.6440, the Oct 14 low.
