OIL: Hungary's MOL Signals Ability to Function Without Russian Oil
Hungary's sole refiner MOL said it can procure most of its oil from non-Russian oil the company has ...
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US TSY FUTURES: Mix Of Long Setting & Short Cover Seen Tuesday
OI data points to a mix of net long setting (TU, FV & WN) and short cover (TY, UXY & US) as Tsy futures ticked higher on Tuesday.
- The most meaningful positioning swing came via the short cover seen in TY futures (~$2.4mln DV01), with the curve-wide net bias also tilted towards net short cover.
| 07-Oct-25 | 06-Oct-25 | Daily OI Change | OI DV01 Equivalent Change ($) |
TU | 4,617,546 | 4,590,741 | +26,805 | +1,053,344 |
FV | 6,721,536 | 6,714,305 | +7,231 | +316,306 |
TY | 5,393,967 | 5,429,056 | -35,089 | -2,363,707 |
UXY | 2,460,836 | 2,462,153 | -1,317 | -119,098 |
US | 1,881,110 | 1,887,029 | -5,919 | -841,244 |
WN | 2,054,464 | 2,052,350 | +2,114 | +395,110 |
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| Total | -6,175 | -1,559,289 |
BONDS: Japanese Investors Net Sold OATs and BTPs In August
Japanese investors were net sellers of French and Italian bonds in August, according to balance of payments data released overnight. While there is no detail on the timing of flows in the data, it’s reasonable to assume that ex-French PM Bayrou’s no-confidence vote announcement on August 25th prompted a degree of selling in French paper.
- Investors net sold JPY67.7bln of French bonds in August, the first month of net sales since March. Year-to-date, net purchases have still totalled JPY917bln, but net flows since Macron’s snap legislative election announcement in Q2 2024 remain clearly negative.
- Investors sold JPY123bln if Italian bonds in August, the third consecutive month of net sales.
- Net purchases of German and UK bonds remained positive in Augst.
- Investors net sold JPY214bln of US Treasuries, but this followed a sizeable JPY2.59trln net inflow in July.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z5) Finding Support Below The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 114-10 High Apr 7 (cont.)
- RES 3: 114-00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 113-12/29 High Sep 18 / High Sep 11 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 113-00 High Sep 24
- PRICE: 112-24 @ 11:04 BST Oct 8
- SUP 1: 112-12+/01 50-day EMA / 50.0% of Jul 15 - Sep 11 upleg
- SUP 2: 111-26 Low Aug 26
- SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support
- SUP 4: 111-01+ 76.4% retracement of the Jul 15 - Sep 11 bull phase
Treasuries continue to find support just below the 50-day EMA, currently at 112-12+. The trend structure remains bullish and recent weakness is considered corrective. A clear break of the 50-day EMA is required to undermine the trend and this would expose 111-13+, the Aug 18 low and a key support. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is 113-00, the Sep 24 high. A break would be bullish.
