BOJ: Historical BoJ Release Times
Local time in Japan is around 11:15am, which is getting closer to the recent release window for the BoJ meeting outcome. The table below presents the local release times (along with BST times and those for Aust time), going back to the start of last year (and for the most recent Jan meeting outcome).
- The general rule of thumb is that the later the meeting announcement time the more likely some time of policy action is taking place. The March meeting and July of last year were evident of this, as was Jan of this year.
Table 1: Historical Release Times (Since Jan 2024) for BoJ meeting Outcomes
| Local Time | BST | AEST | |
| Jan 23 (2024) | 12:09PM | 03:09AM | 2:09PM |
| Mar 19 | 12:36PM | 03:36AM | 2:36PM |
| Apr 26 | 12:22PM | 04:22AM | 1:22PM |
| Jun 14 | 12:23PM | 04:23AM | 1:23PM |
| Jul 31 | 12:56PM | 04:56AM | 1:56PM |
| Sep 20 | 11:52AM | 03:52AM | 12:52PM |
| Oct 31 | 11:48AM | 02:48AM | 1:48PM |
| Dec 19 | 11:52AM | 02:52AM | 1:52PM |
| Jan 24 (2025) | 12:23PM | 03:23AM | 2:23PM |
Source: MNI- Market News/Bloomberg
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CHINA: Data Out Shows Bond Market’s Rapid Development.
- Over the weekend the Shanghai Security News reported on the explosion of growth of bond ETF’s in China.
- Analysis shows that the market now has 29 bond ETFs in existence, with the size of the funds now exceeding CNY200bn, having been only CNY100bn mid-year last year.
- Launched in early 2013, China’s first ETF for many was the first step forward in the modernization of its domestic bond market; yet the growth and development was slow.
- The multi-year housing crisis was key to the growth in domestic ETFs as private investors, looking for somewhere else for their savings, turned to the bond market.
- Since June 2023, new home prices have been in contraction highlighting investor concerns as to the oversupply in the domestic property.
- At the same time, the yield on the 10YR China Government bond (June 2023 to present) has contracted from 2.6% to 1.6% which no doubt is somewhat reflecting the development of the bond ETF market.
AUSSIE BONDS: Cheaper To Start A Busy Week
ACGBs (YM -3.0 & XM -3.0) are weaker with US tsy futures on a data-light day ahead of tomorrow’s RBA Policy Decision.
- Tomorrow’s RBA decision takes centre stage this week, with economists widely anticipating a 25bp rate cut.
- The RBA statement and updated forecasts will be released at 1430 AEDT with Governor Bullock’s press conference at 1530 AEDT.
- There are also Q4 wages on Wednesday and January jobs data on Thursday.
- The Q4 WPI is forecast to post another 0.8% q/q rise bringing the annual rate down to 3.2% from 3.5% in Q3.
- January employment is projected to rise 20k on Thursday after 56.3k the previous month, which would drive the unemployment rate up 0.1pp to 4.1%.
- Cash ACGBs are 3bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -3bps.
- Swap rates are 3-4bps higher.
- The bills strip is -1 to -4, with a steepening bias.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 5bps firmer across 2025 meetings today, with Dec-25 leading.
- A 25bp rate cut in April remains fully priced (116%), while the probability of a cut tomorrow stands at 82%.
- AOFM plans to sell A$800mn of the 2.75% 21 June 2035 bond on Wednesday and A$700mn of the 2.50% 21 May 2030 bond on Friday.
AUD: AUDUSD Continues Friday’s Rally, AUDNZD Lower Ahead Of Rate Meetings
AUDUSD has rallied sharply driven by stronger HK/China equities. The pair is up 0.3% to 0.6369 and is also benefiting from the prospects of peace in Ukraine. It approached resistance at 0.6384 reaching a high of 0.6372, after clearing 0.6334 on Friday. The USD index is down 0.1%. US retail sales disappointed on Friday.
- Aussie is stronger against European currencies with AUDEUR up 0.1% to 0.6061 after a high of 0.6066. AUDGBP is 0.1% higher at 0.5054, close to the intraday peak of 0.5058.
- AUDJPY is off its intraday low of 96.44 to be flat at 96.73. AUDNZD tested 1.11 but is now down slightly to 1.1084. Both the RBA and RBNZ are forecast to cut rates this week but with NZ exceeding Australia with 50bp.
- Equities are mixed with the ASX down 0.8% but Hang Seng up 1.3% and S&P e-mini +0.1%. Oil prices are slightly lower with WTI -0.3% to $70.55/bbl. Copper is down 0.2% and iron ore slightly lower at around $104.50/t.
- Later the Fed’s Harker, Bowman and Waller speak, while there isn’t any US data due to the Presidents Day holiday. Euro area December trade data print and the Eurogroup meeting takes place.
