US NATGAS: Henry Hub Midday Updated
Sep-25 17:06
Henry Hub front month erases morning gains after storage report showed a 75 bcf injection in line with analyst expectations
- Oct 25 is trading at $2.877, up 0.66% on the day.
- Nov 25 is trading at $3.181, up 1.53% on the day.
- Nov 25 intraday volume crept up to 144k lots, about 18% more than yesterday’s volume so far.
- Henry Hub futures remain bearish and the contract is trading below resistance. A downwards price sequence of lower lows and lower highs is intact - the definition of a bear trend - and note that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Support to watch is $2.738, the Aug 25 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the trend. Initial resistance is $3.109, the 50-day EMA.
- Forecasts shifted cooler for the eastern and southern US for Sept. 30-Oct. 4 and warmer for the western and north-central regions, per Bloomberg.
- The NOAA 6-10 day temperature outlook revised a bit cooler on the coasts.
- Feedgas deliveries to US LNG facilities were 16.12 bcf/d today, according to MNI estimates.
- BNEF estimates lower 48 dry gas production at 107.75 Bcf/d, down from the previous day of 109.29 Bcf/d.
- U.S. dry gas consumption is estimated at 73.26 Bcf/d, down from the previous day of 77.10 Bcf/d.
- Pipeline exports to Mexico were estimated at 7.84 Bcf/d, up from the previous day of 7.78 Bcf/d.
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US TSYS/SUPPLY: Review 2Y Note Auction: Strong
Aug-26 17:04
- Tsy futures inch higher after the latest $69B 2Y note auction (91282CNV9) stops through: 3.641% high yield vs. 3.656% WI; 2.69x bid-to-cover vs. 2.62x prior.
- Peripheral stats: Indirect take-up inches up to 57.09% from 55.33 prior, directs slip to 33.16% vs. 34.37% prior, primary dealer take-up at 9.74% vs. 10.30% prior.
- The next 2Y auction is tentatively scheduled for September 23.
FED: US TSY 2Y NOTE AUCTION: HIGH YLD 3.641%; ALLOTMENT 57.40%
Aug-26 17:02
- US TSY 2Y NOTE AUCTION: HIGH YLD 3.641%; ALLOTMENT 57.40%
- US TSY 2Y NOTE AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 9.74% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 2Y NOTE AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 33.16% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 2Y NOTE AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 57.09% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 2Y AUCTION: BID/CVR 2.69
EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback
Aug-26 17:00
- RES 4: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021
- RES 3: 1.1829 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 1.1789 High Jul 24
- RES 1: 1.1743 High Aug 22
- PRICE: 1.1660 @ 16:15 BST Aug 26
- SUP 1: 1.1597/1.1528 50-day EMA / Low Aug 5
- SUP 2: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.1373 Low Jun 10
- SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30
Despite Monday's move down, the trend set-up in EURUSD remains bullish and short-term weakness is for now considered corrective. Support at the 50-day EMA remains intact, at 1.1597. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement and potentially expose key support at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low. For bulls, a stronger resumption of gains would open key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.1829, the Jul 1 high.
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